England are in serious trouble of dropping out of UEFA Nations League A. The Three Lions started the tournament in terrible form, losing twice and drawing twice. Gareth Southgate’s team cannot qualify for the finals stage of the Nations League. The Three Lions are now in a relegation scrap.
On Friday night, Italy will welcome England to the San Siro in Milan for matchday No. 5 of the UEFA Nations League. The Azzurri are third in League A Group 3 with five points. Italy are two points off of first-place Hungary, who play Germany on Friday in Leipzig.
According to leading sportsbooks, England are the favourite to win at odds of 6/4. Italy are at the best betting odds of 9/5 to win, and the teams are at odds of 11/5 to draw in Milan. Let’s explore some options for a bet builder.
Itay vs England Bet Builder
This 15/4 Italy vs. England bet builder would return £47.50 with a total profit of £37.50 with the following selections:
Double Chance: Italy win or draw
England are winless against Italy in five straight matches. The Three Lions posted a record of 0W-4D-1L in the last five games versus the Azzurri.
Four consecutive matches between these national teams finished as stalemates. In July 2021, Italy and England drew 1-1 in the European Championship final. The Azzurri won the match on penalty kicks.
Neither of these teams is playing well. Italy failed to qualify for the World Cup. They have a record of 2W-2D-3L in 2022 in all competitions. England are winless in four straight matches.
The Three Lions defeated Switzerland and the Ivory Coast in friendlies by a combined score of 5-1. However, each of England’s last four matches finished without a victory. Our betting tips prediction is for England’s poor form against Italy to continue. A double chance Italy win or draw is a safe bet for Friday night’s match.
Total shots: Ciro Immobile over 1.5 shots
Ciro Immobile is likely to start in attack for Italy. The striker is in fine form with five goals in seven Serie A matches for Lazio and has four assists in nine matches in all competitions. Roberto Mancini should use Immobile as the central striker in a 4-3-3.
Southgate is likely to start Harry Maguire in defence. The defender is second-choice at Manchester United this season. Maguire has not played well at all this campaign. He is a risk, but Southgate seems determined to play his favourites.
Immobile could have a strong performance against Maguire. The Lazio legend has 15 goals in 55 international matches. In Serie A, Immobile averages 3.14 shots per 90 minutes. Our betting tips prediction is for Immobile to tally over 1.5 shots versus England. He may not get a goal, but Immobile will be dangerous.
Total goals: Over 1.5 goals
Five of the last six matches between Italy and England finished with over 1.5 goals. The only match not to feature more than 1.5 goals was the UEFA Nations League match in June.
The teams can be forgiven for the scoreless draw in June. Both sets of players were fresh off of gruelling domestic campaigns. The players are in the club season currently. Our betting tips prediction is for a better, more attractive match in Milan.
Four of England’s last six international matches finished with over 1.5 goals. Five of Italy’s last six international matches ended with over 1.5 goals. Both teams will have had a week to prepare for the match. It could lead to goals being scored.
England must get maximum points against Italy to prevent relegation to League B. A win could take them level with third-place Italy. A loss would see England relegated to the second level of the UEFA Nations League.
Total tackles: Declan Rice over 1.5 tackles
Southgate should start West Ham defensive midfielder Declan Rice on Friday night. However, Rice won’t play next to usual international midfield partner Kalvin Phillips. The Man City player has undergone shoulder surgery ahead of the World Cup.
Rice could play next to Jude Bellingham in the centre of the park. He will be tasked with stopping Italy’s attack and preventing counter-attacks from happening. Rice averages 2.4 tackles per match in the Premier League with West Ham. He averages 2.0 tackles in the Europa Conference League.
The defensive midfielder should have plenty of opportunities to break up play. Our betting tips prediction is to add Rice to your bet builder.
Total corners: Over 3.5 corners
Italy and England combined for 4.0 corners on matchday No. 3 of the UEFA Nations League. Our betting tips prediction is for the teams to once again combine for more than 3.5 corners in the competition.
The teams’ European Championship final in 2021 also ended with over 3.5 corners. The national teams combined for eight corner kicks.
Italy played Germany on UEFA Nations League matchday No. 4. The teams tallied nine corner kicks. England lost 4-0 to Hungary on matchday No. 4 at home. The teams recorded six corners during the match.
Friday night’s fixture at San Siro should see Italy and England combine for more than 3.5 corners. Both teams should attack. England need to win the match more than Italy. They need to get off the bottom of the table and find form ahead of November’s World Cup.