Fulham are rock bottom of the Premier League and have just been dumped out of the FA Cup by a League One side so Sunday’s trip to Man United, live on Sky Sports 1 at 16:00, doesn’t look ideal. However, Easyodds.com editor Simon Hopper says the Cottagers look a smidgen of value to pull off a miraculous victory at a whopping 19/1…
Simon’s Recommended Bet:
Fulham To Win @ 19/1 (Exchanges) – BET NOW
Backing Fulham to win at Man United may sound like a ridiculous wager, but hear me out.
Fulham are 19/1 to win the match on Betfair. After deducting commission, that’s saying they have roughly a 5% chance of winning the match. But is their chance of victory really that small?
Remember, Fulham have won 25% of all their away Premier League games this season (three of 12) – admittedly they were all against bottom half sides but that’s still more than seven other clubs in the division. And United have lost 33% of all their home Premier League games (four of 12) – all to clubs outside the top four.
Also remember that this is only 7th against 20th, a difference of ‘only’ 13 places. To put that into perspective, would 19th place Cardiff be 18/1 to win at 6th place Tottenham? And would 18th place West Ham be 18/1 to win at 5th place Everton? I’d suggest they would both be around half that price. After 24 games United are an upper-mid table side though looking at the match odds you’d think that they were performing at top four levels.
Finally, don’t forget that Fulham do have several new faces to throw into the fray here (Lewis Holtby and Kostas Mitroglou among them) whereas United could easily be without several defenders such as Jonny Evans and Phil Jones.
Of course I’m not suggesting that Fulham are likely to win the match, merely that their chances of winning are better than the 19/1 quoted on Betfair. So back Fulham to win.
Premier League Preview
After losing 2-1 at Stoke last time out, United surely have to beat Fulham to keep their fading top four hopes alive. David Moyes’ side are currently a best price 7/2 to make the Champions League places, though an away clash at Arsenal after this is hardly ideal. Fulham have crashed to rock bottom of the Premier League and their embarrassing 1-0 FA Cup defeat to Sheffield United in midweek was as bad as it gets, according to manager Rene Meulensteen. The Cottagers are now 1/2 favourites to go down in the relegation betting market.
Premier League Facts
Head to heads:
Man United have won their last seven consecutive games against Fulham – you have to go back to 2010 for the last time the Cottagers avoided defeat. Bet Now on the full-time result.
Man United have been under 2.5 goals in five of their last seven home Premier League games. Bet Now on the over/under market.
Steve Sidwell has a surprisingly good scoring record this season, with six goals in his last 24 Fulham appearances (or one in every four games over that period). Bet Now on the anytime scorer market.
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