Spain vs Poland Betting Tips
Spain were left frustrated by Sweden to kick off Euro 2020 tournament Group E. La Roja drew the game nil-nil with Sweden despite keeping 86% possession. The old cliche that possession doesn’t win football matches was once again proven to be correct. Despite having so much possession, it was Sweden who had the best chances in the game.
On Saturday, Spain will face off against Poland in Seville. The Polish lost 2-1 versus Slovakia on matchday 1 in Group E. Poland were poor despite claiming more possession. Midfielder Grzegorz Krychowiak was sent off in the second half for a red card. Slovakia scored seven minutes later in the 69th minute through Milan Skriniar to win the match.
Spain have a brilliant record against Poland. They have posted a record of 8W-1D-1L dating back to 1959. These teams have not met since 2010. That match finished 6-0 with Spain claiming the victory.
According to reports in Spain, manager Luis Enrique is preparing a few changes for the match on Saturday. La Roja had no cutting edge versus Slovakia. Alvaro Morata was poor and the team looked far better the Gerard Moreno once he came on. There are calls for Enrique to play the two strikers together rather than one for the other. Will Spain be left frustrated or will theybetter their record against Poland?
Spain vs Poland Betting Odds
Spain tallied 86% possession, 17 shots with five on target, and completed 917 passes versus Sweden. Yet, despite those great numbers, Spain were unable to score a single goal and looked unlikely to get on the scoresheet. At Euro 2016, Spain played the same starting XI for each game. Spain made it to the round of 16 before being knockout of the tournament.
In depth stats from Spain’s nil-nil draw with Sweden showed just how many goalscoring opportunities the team made. Morata and Moreno both missed good chances as Spain produced an expected goals tally of 2.89 to Sweden’s 1.19. Leading sportsbooks have Spain at odds of ½ to win on home soil.
Neither Spain nor Poland can afford to lose the game on Saturday. A loss for either side would mean they need to win their final group stage game to have any chance of going through to the knockout stage. Even then, progression wouldn’t be guaranteed. A draw wouldn’t be as damaging as a loss. Still, Spain and Poland must win to go through to the next round.
Poland are underdogs against Spain at odds of 17/2. The Polish were not good against Slovakia despite the game finishing 2-1. Although Poland were a man down for most of the game, they still collected 58% possession and 17 shots versus Slovakia. Spain will dominate possession on Saturday with Poland likely to play defensively and attempting to hit on the counter.
Spain vs Poland Team News
Enrique routinely rotates the Spain midfield. He doesn’t like to repeat the same midfield from game to game. Enrique used Marcos Llorente out of position at right-back just to squeeze him into the team against Sweden. Llorente is a midfielder and was one of the best in La Liga last season. Enrique may not use the midfielder in his position on Saturday, however. Due to the team keeping a clean sheet, Enrique may keep him at right-back.
Koke and Pedri were praised for their performances versus Sweden. They could keep their places in the team. Rodri was lifted in the second half for Thiago, but just like many times for Liverpool last season, the holding midfielder couldn’t cut through the opposing defence.
Enrique could stick with continuity by playing goalie Unai Simon and centre-backs Aymeric Laporte and Pau Torres. The back four were stretched at times as Sweden had two great scoring opportunities. One of which was denied by the goalpost.
Poland’s Robert Lewandowski has never translated his club form for Bayern Munich over to the Polish national team. He once again struggled in Poland’s Group E matchday 1 loss to Slovakia. Zero of Lewandowski’s five shots found the target. He had just 39 touches during the game. Paulo Sousa will hope Lewandowski will step up for the team on Saturday versus Spain. Krychowiak will miss the game due to suspension
Spain vs Poland Prediction
Both teams to score: YES @ 23/20 - BET NOW
Poland are coming off of a 2-1 loss to Slovakia. If Krychowiak hadn’t been sent off, Poland may have seen out a 1-1 draw. Slovakia scored just seven minutes after Krychowiak was sent off. Poland’s defence will be under caution for most of the game. Unlike Sweden, Poland may not be able to stand up to Spain’s attack. Meanwhile, Spain’s defence showed some cracks against Sweden and were almost breached on two occasions.
Gerard Moreno to score anytime @ 11/10 - BET NOW
Gerard Moreno is coming off of a brilliant season at Villarreal helping the team win the Europa League. He tallied 30 goals in 46 matches in all competitions. Moreno has played just 12 times for Spain scoring five goals. The problem many Spanish football fans see is Enrique’s desire not to play Moreno and Morata in the same starting XI. Will he alter the team and play with two strikers versus Poland?
Over 2.5 goals scored @ 20/23 - BET NOW
Three of Spain’s last six matches ended with over 2.5 goals scored. It is unlikely Spain will be stifled like they were against Sweden. Enrique should make the adjustments needed while Poland’s defence will fail to stand up to the Spanish team.
Five of Poland’s last six games finished with more than 2.5 goals scored. Each of their last four matches finished with over 2.5 goals scored and they conceded in each of their last four fixtures. Sousa’s defence just isn’t good enough and Spain should cut through the Polish defence.
Spain looked very one dimensional against Sweden. Their possession-based tactic couldn’t get through the Swedish defence. If Enrique cannot adapt, Spain won’t go far in the tournament. Spain should defeat Poland as Lewandowski once again fails to live up to the hype for national team.
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