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Remind me next time

Well what a week The Masters turned out to be, both from a viewers and a preview perspective.

Tiger Woods announced his come back to the golfing scene by not only making his 22nd cut at Augusta but also managing to walk around 72 holes at a long and demanding course and then post tournament he stated that he would be teeing it up at the Open Championship in July, exciting indeed.

Scottie Scheffler was the eventual winner by 3 shots to Rory McIlroy in 2nd. That was Scheffler’s 4th win in the matter of a few months and proving to the world that the World Number 1 position is more than deserved.

Three out of the four guys that were tipped in last weeks article made the cut to the weekend. Xander Schauffele was very disappointing to say the least and missed the cut with a +7 score. Whilst Hovland made the weekend but stumbled to a +4 total. On the other hand, Will Zalatoris and Corey Conners had brilliant back 9s on Sunday and surged their way into a Tie for 6th place with each other, meaning a full place return for us at prices of 30/1 and 40/1. A profitable week for us, exactly what you want from a major championship.

RBC Heritage Preview

Players travel three hours east to Hilton Head Island, South Carolina where they will compete for the RBC Heritage on the Harbour Town Golf Links course at Sea Pines Resort.

Year on year the RBC Heritage follows The Masters, so for most it's seen as the ‘hangover’ tournament. But that’s not always the case, as Harbour Town is renowned as a top course on Tour and always manages to attract some big names in the game.

About Harbour Town Golf Links

  • Par 71, 7120 yards approx.
  • Pete Dye Design with helpings from Jack Nicklaus
  • Bermuda Greens with slight Poa overseed
  • 4 x Par 3s, 11 x Par 4s, 3 x Par 5s
  • All Par 3s 192 yards+
  • 8/11 Par 4s 451 yards or less
  • All 3 Par 5s reachable in 2 for all players
  • Smaller than average greens
  • Water in play quite a bit Off the Tee

RBC Heritage Previous Winners

2021 Stewart Cink -19

  • 20th OTT
  • 1st T2G
  • 2nd APP
  • 1st GIR
  • 5th ATG

2020 Webb Simpson -22

  • 30th OTT
  • 7th T2G
  • 8th APP
  • 12th GIR
  • 18th ATG

2019 CT Pan -12

  • 50th OTT
  • 11th T2G
  • 18th APP
  • 39th GIR
  • 7th ATG

2018 Satoshi Kodaira -12

  • 6th OTT
  • 7th T2G
  • 7th APP
  • 7th GIR
  • 18th ATG

2017 Wesley Bryan -13

  • 67th OTT
  • 6th T2G
  • 2nd APP
  • 66th GIR
  • 10th ATG

Stat averages - Score -16

  • 35th OTT
  • 6th T2G
  • 7th APP
  • 25th GIR
  • 12th ATG

Stats to focus on:

  • SG: OTT/Accuracy
  • GIR/APP
  • Ability to scramble when needed
  • Par 4 scoring (400-450 efficiency)
  • Course Experience

A typical Pete Dye track Harbour Town is; deep pot bunkers surround the greens and are awkwardly placed in the fairways, smaller than average greens seen here this week and a premium on positional/accurate shots, especially off the tee.

Looking at the course specifics. The distance is less than Tour averages, therefore brings all kinds of players to the front and with a chance, this can be seen by just looking at the previous 5 winners. This can make predicting the winner slightly trickier than usual!

The SG: OTT and Driving Accuracy stats don’t really represent how much of a premium will be on positioning your tee shots in the right places this week to avoid trouble with dog legs/deep bunkering around the greens. So i will be factoring driving into account this week and look for players who constantly set opportunities up.

Accuracy is clearly a premium here, not just with the driver/tee shot, but with the irons from these fairways. Hitting these tiny greens is a must and the skill to get up and down when the players eventually miss one will be massive here. Hence the GIR/APP stats being low for 3/5 of the last winners, and then if the GIR stats haven’t been up to scratch like Bryan’s weren’t in 2017, strokes can be gained Around The Green in the short run off areas.

I shall factor in Par 4 scoring this week. We have visited various Par 72s in the last weeks on Tour, here we come to a Par 71 where the players will faces 1 more Par 4 to what they’ve seen of late and 8/11 of them fall under 451 yards, so i will be looking at the guys who are efficient at this range.

And finally, Course experience at Harbour Town has proved to be critical. Seeing this intricate track has clearly ben a positive factor in previous years - we see this thru there being numerous guys that have won here multiple times and guys that perform here year in year out.

RBC Heritage Betting Odds

odds

As i said in the article previously, this event attracts the names! and its done it once again this year. 5 of the top 10 OWGR players are here this week, along with another 6 of the top 11-20 OWGR players and previous winners fill the field. This only means one thing… value is aplenty this week! Lets get stuck into the odds;

Top of the market at 12/1 we have World Number 8, Justin Thomas. He has gone 11-75-8 in 3 starts here, coming of an 8th place finish last week at The Masters where he pretty much went unnoticed most of the week, no reason why he couldn’t go another step better here.

Second in the betting at 14/1 is Cameron Smith. In my opinion, the second best player in the world right now on current form. Another positive finish last week at The Masters, he is full of confidence. Coming back to a place where he has finished in the top 20 twice from 6 attempts, already won on short windy tracks this year so there’s no-one doubting he can win this this week. Potentially, Cam could have been favourite here this week in my opinion.

Class acts of; Collin Morikawa, Dustin Johnson and Patrick Cantlay then come in the market between Cam Smith and the 18/1 mark.

DJ is the pick of this bunch for me, getting back to somewhere near his best, has work to do with the driver however we seen him hit a bunch of 3 woods off the tees last week at Augusta with some good effect. He has tee’d it up the last 4 years here and has not finished worse than 28th, with the Top 10 finish last week he can use that confidence to deliver again here.

Course specialists; Matt Fitzpatrick, Shane Lowry and last weeks hero Corey Conners come next in the betting at 20, 20 and 22/1. All capable of winning this but at these prices i just can’t tip them. If a gun was too my head however i would say Lowry to do the best out of the 3.

Dan Berger, Joaq Niemann and Sunjae Im round off the market upto the 30/1 mark. Berger loves these types of tracks but the injury record of late and the poor form i can’t take him yet, Niemann on debut last year finished 5th here and with a win already at the tough Genesis Open he could double his win tally for the year quite easily here. Sunjae had a really positive Masters last week, he held the sole lead at one point and looked in complete control until a rip roaring Scottie burst through on Saturday, 13th for Sunjae here last year isn’t bad, but with missing the cut the twice before is a concern.

Best of the rest above 30/1 that i looked at was; Jordan Speith, Matt Kuchar and Mav McNealy.

RBC Heritage Tips

Dustin Johnson 18/1

Course Form - MC-MC-16-28-17-13
Recent Form - T12-4-39-9

Key Stats:

  • South Carolina Born
  • 20th OTT
  • 30th APP
  • 19th Putting Average
  • 8th Par 4 Birdie or Better %

Sunjae Im 30/1

Course Form - MC-MC-13
Recent Form - T8-T35-T55-T20

Key Stats:
- 17th OTT

  • 60%+ Driving Accuracy
  • 18th GIR
  • 12th ATG/4th Scrambling
  • 5th Par 4 Scoring Average/20th Par 4 Efficiency 400-450 yards

Alex Noren 45/1

Course Form - 28-21-25
Recent Form - T18-T12-T26-T5

Key Stats:

  • Some of the most consistent course form/recent here - Top 80 for all of T2G, APP, GIR - 4th Scrambling - 30th SG: Putting
  • Top 80 for all of T2G, APP, GIR
  • 4th Scrambling
  • 30th SG: Putting

Tom Hoge 70/1

Course Form - 55-MC-MC-25
Recent Form - T39-T33-T32-MC-T14-1

Key Stats:

  • Won and had a top 5 finish at 2 short, wind affected tracks where ball striking is a must (RSM Classic/Pebble Beach)
  • 12th T2G
  • Over 60% Driving Accuracy
  • 7th Approach
  • 11th Scrambling

RBC Heritage Betting Tips