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Remind me next time

Happy New Year to you all! I hope you've had a cracking festive period and ready to bash the bookies for another year in 2023!

We closed 2022 in profit with season ending figures of +143.80 and an ROI of 28.8%. This is the second year in a row I've managed a triple figure profit which I am pleased about for sure and hope to replicate it again this year! 

As always, let's kick-off the year with the Sentry Tournament of Champions.

Sentry Tournament of Champions Betting Odds


This week's field consists of 39 players including 30 winners on the PGA Tour from last year as well as a few qualifiers from OWGR and the FedEx cup from the 2021/22 season. The only winner from last year not in the field this week is Rory McIlroy - similar to 2022.

Defending champion Cameron Smith who impressively shot -34 here last year won’t be defending here this year due to him joining the rival LIV Golf tour at the back end of last year.

The Sentry ToC is held for the 25th year in a row at the Plantation Course, Kapalua Resort on the island of Maui, Hawaii.

Let’s go into the specifics of The Plantation Course and see why it is a very unique course on the PGA Tour.

Details of The Plantation Course

  • Par 73 – Links style course
  • 7596 yards
  • 3 x Par 3s – ranging from 161-219 yards
  • 11 x Par 4s – ranging from 369-550 yards (7 under 425 yards)
  • 4 x Par 5s – ranging from 526-677 yards
  • Bill Coore/Ben Creshaw Design
  • Bermuda Greens
  • 7 holes over 500 yards
  • Wide, undulating fairways/greens
  • Steep run off areas around the greens

The Plantation Course is a unique setup with this track being the only Par 73 we will see on Tour this year. Not only this, but the players will have to adapt to the extreme variety of length to some of the holes, where power and precision will both be tested.

We can expect to see abnormal amount of very short Par 4s which will be reachable to some guys coupled with extremely long Par 4/5s they will need to navigate. The course sits inside the top 10 longest tracks that the players will face on American soil this year on Tour.

Past Sentry Tournament of Champions Winners

Heres a list of the past 5 winners of the Sentry ToC:

2022 – Cameron Smith -34
2021 – Harris English -25
2020 – Justin Thomas -14
2019 – Xander Schauffele -23
2018 – Dustin Johnson -24
2017 – Justin Thomas -22

You can see from the past five winners of this tournament that it's a mixed bag between bombers and more second shot/around the green golfers.

Combining that with the knowledge of their stats, it will allow us to form a solid picture of the specific attributes the winner will need to possess.

2022 - Cameron Smith (-34)

  • T14 DA
  • 1st OTT
  • 3rd T2G
  • 7th APP
  • 7th ATG
  • 2nd PA
  • T17 Par 3s
  • T1 Par 4s
  • 1st Par 5s

2021 - Harris English (-25)

  • T14 DA
  • 8th OTT
  • 13th T2G
  • 12th APP
  • 15th ATG
  • T1 PA   
  • T3 Par 3s
  • 12th Par 4s
  • 5th Par 5s

2020 - Justin Thomas -14

  • T19 DA
  • 6th OTT
  • 2nd T2G
  • 2nd APP
  • 8th ATG
  • 2nd PA  
  • 1st Par 3s
  • 7th Par 4s
  • 7th Par 5s

2019 - Xander Schauffele (-23)

  • T15 DA
  • 5th OTT
  • 3rd T2G
  • 4th APP
  • 5th ATG
  • 2nd PA  
  • 2nd Par 3s
  • 2nd Par 4s
  • 4th Par 5s

2018 - Dustin Johnson (-24)

  • T18 DA
  • 1st OTT
  • 1st T2G
  • 7th APP
  • 6th ATG
  • 1st PA   
  • 7th Par 3s
  • 1st Par 4s
  • 3rd Par 5s

2017 - Justin Thomas (-22)

  • T17 DA
  • 3rd OTT
  • 1st T2G
  • 6th APP
  • 4th ATG
  • T1 PA   
  • 3rd Par 3s
  • 1st Par 4s
  • 20th Par 5s

Average Stats for the Past Six Winners

  • 16th DA
  • 4th OTT
  • 4th T2G
  • 6th APP
  • 7th ATG
  • 1st PA   
  • 5th Par 3s
  • 4th Par 4s
  • 7th Par 5s

Stats to Focus on this Week

  • Good SG: OTT/T2G stats
  • Approach
  • ATG game/Putting Average
  • Good history at the course
  • Good history on Bermuda Greens
  • Par 4 performance

Looking at the stats above, we can see Driving Accuracy has never been a factor to dominate the field, probably due to how wide these fairways are and how easy they are to hit. The percentages are always high in the field.

However, putting it in the right places off-the-tee on the longer holes and getting it as close to the green on the shorter Par 4s is clearly key, so I will be homing in on players with strong OTT games.

Approach and Around The Green stats may not have been too impressive for the previous winners, however with the amount of short second shots the players will face on the shorter Par 4s I believe this will be a stat to look out for.

The same goes for the players' Around The Green games. The amount of undulation and run off areas around the greens this week is high, so players will need sharp short games to prevail.

A good history on this course and on tricky Bermuda surfaces will be handy here - none of the last six winners were debuting the course and all had at least one visit to the course previously. Having a dab hand on Bermuda previously will also be a factor in getting hot with the putter this week. The greens play slow but the greens are massive and the undulations on them prove very tricky year-in-year-out.

And lastly, as the yardage ranges are that large on the Par 4s this week, if they are conquered by an individual, it’ll put them in great position on Sunday. Score low on the short ones and avoid mistakes on the long tricky ones.

A strong all-round game is required, especially if the players want to reach the low numbers it’ll take to win this week.

Sentry Tournament of Champions Betting Tips

Right, let's get back into tipping. This week I have a four value tips with 10pts in total advised. Make sure you split your points evenly across all four selections as follows. Good luck all, let’s get off to a flyer!

1. Justin Thomas 12/1 (Win Only)


2. Tony Finau 16/1 (5 places)


3. Sam Burns 28/1 (6 places)


4. Seamus Power 30/1 (7 places)