A frustrating end to the week for us last time out at the Farmer Insurance Open.
We finished the week with a full place return on our 16/1 tip Collin Morikawa, who ended finishing solo 3rd, but our 14/1 tip Tony Finau and 28/1 tip Hideki Matsuyama both finished in a tie for 9th place, 1 shot outside the places.
They were all sitting inside the top 4 spots heading into the back 9, so to only end up with 1 place left a sour taste for sure.
Max Homa grabbed his 6th win on the PGA Tour and the 2nd for the season. He is becoming the 'closer of all closers' when it matters on a Sunday, and when he is in his home state of California he is unstoppable of late.
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Odds
Onto this week then and we stay in California but move up coast to the Pebble Beach area. The players have got quite used to contending in these 'multi course' events the last 2 weeks, and the Pebble Beach Pro-Am is no different.
The field consists of 156 professionals along with 156 amateurs (mostly celebrities) which each will be paired with a professional golfer, so the guys will have to manage them potential distractions/hold ups during their rounds. The courses this week are; Pebble Beach (host course), Monterrey Peninsula and Spyglass Hill.
Through Thursday-Saturday, the guys will play the 3 courses once each day, the cut will then fall after the first 3 rounds and then the Sunday round, everyone will head and play the Pebble Beach course again for the second time of their weeks.
Mountains of course form to refer to this week along with the 6 US Opens that Pebble Beach Golf Links has hosted, most recently the 2019 edition where Gary Woodland was your champion.
Let’s dissect the 3 courses a bit more and give you an insight into them.
Pebble Beach Golf Links
- Par 72
- 6970 yards approx.
- Designers: Jack Nevill & Douglas Grant
- 4 x Par 3s - ranging from 106-202 yards
- 10 x Par 4s - ranging from 333-483 yards
- 4 x Par 5s - ranging from 498-582 yards
- Poa Annua greens
- Tiny greens
- Par 72
- 7040 yards approx.
- Robert Trent Jones Snr design
- 4 x Par 3s - ranging from 130-203 yards
- 10 x Par 4s - ranging from 325-476 yards
- 4 x Par 5s - ranging from 549-595 yards
- Poa Annua greens
- Mostly a tree lined course
- Toughest of the three
- Par 71
- 6950 yards approx.
- Robert Baldock design
- 5 x Par 3s - ranging from 155-226 yards
- 9 x Par 4s - ranging from 349-495 yards
- 4 x Par 5 s - ranging from 500-599 yards
- Poa Annua greens
- Tends to be the easier of the three
A couple of mentions about the 3 courses on offer here.
Pebble Beach is the host course and the one the players who make the cut will play on twice. Just like last week on the South Course, it is a Poa Annua test but a much shorter and more intricate track. Several doglegs on offer, where players will have to position their golf ball of the tee with their second shot in mind especially if the wind blows.
Pebble also presents the players with much smaller than Tour average green sizes, hitting them in regulation will be very key but also getting up and down successfully around the greens when the players miss them.
Spyglass Hill is next on the list and will probably be the toughest test the players will face this week and definitely the one to avoid losing too many places on the leader board at. However, if its windier on the day the players come to Spyglass then the 13 holes that are tree lined will protect them from the elements, so it is the course to play when the elements are stronger.
However, with the other 5 holes being exposed to the coast, guys with good experience in the wind/on the coast will prevail. 5 Par 4s under 410 yards means this gives players ideal chances to gain ground on these holes and must take advantage of these holes.
Monterey Peninsula is the 3rd course they will face and will perhaps be the easiest and a nice respite for the guys. 6/9 of the Par 4s are sub 430 yards and all 4 Par 5s are reachable in 2 shots so birdies/eagles should be popular around this track with it being consistently the lowest scoring on the 3 courses each year in terms of Scoring Averages.
All courses present the players with less than 7100 yards so conclusions can be drawn up on guys that tend to prevail on the shorter, second shot golf courses and with the Poa Annua greens running through them all, a good experience on them is never a bad thing and maybe a run on them last week wouldn’t have been a bad thing either.
Previous winners and their Performance Stats
2022 Winner – Tom Hoge -19
19th OTT 3rd T2G 7th GIR 4th APP 8th Scr 2nd PA
2nd Par 3s 1st Par 4s 15th Par 5s
2021 Winner – Dan Berger -18
7th OTT 2nd T2G 3rd GIR 6th APP 1st Scr 29th PA
5th Par 3s 2nd Par 4s 14th Par 5s
2020 Winner – Nick Taylor -19
50th OTT 19th T2G 3rd GIR 13th APP 30th Scr 2nd PA
1st Par 3s 2nd Par 4s 5th Par 5s
2019 Winner – Phil Mickelson -19
26th OTT 2nd T2G 8th GIR 1st APP 51st Scr 2nd PA
19th Par 3s 2nd Par 4s 2nd Par 5s
2018 Winner – Ted Potter Jnr -17
15th OTT 7th T2G 9th GIR 19th APP 19th Scr 4th PA
40th Par 3s 2nd Par 4s 2nd Par 5s
2017 Winner – Jordan Speith -18
45th OTT 22nd T2G 3rd GIR 12th APP 8th Scr 2nd PA
1st Par 3s 2nd Par 4s 39th Par 5s
Average stats for the past 6 winners – Average Score -19
27th OTT 9th T2G 5th GIR 9th APP 19th Scr 7th PA
11th Par 3s 2nd Par 4s 12th Par 5s
Summary/Stats to consider.
- Driving Accuracy
- GIR/SG: APP
- Putting average (on Poa Annua)
- Par 4 scoring
Will try and keep it nice and simple this week, as there are a few elements other than form/stats this season that will contribute to the performances this week.
Patience will be massive this week, players may have to endure 5/6 hour rounds this week with their amateur partners, so an experience of playing here/in this kind of format will be key.
As the tracks are coastal (especially Pebble Beach) the weather always plays a massive part as the wind can cause havoc coming off the sea. The conditions at the minute do not look awful, a constant wind of around 10mph will prevail during the week.
The issue could come on the Sunday when the guys finish on the host course, currently rain is forecast pretty heavy all day, that mixed with the wind could prove quite the test! So keep one eye on any changes in that forecast.
Fairways this week across the 3 courses are narrower than the average fairways the players face on a regular basis with the narrowest ones coming at the tricky Spyglass Hill course. So, if the guys do want to score low this week which they'll need to do if they want to contend, they will need to avoid the thick luscious rough that awaits them off of these fairways.
From the fairway then, the danger does not go away. These greens are tiny (especially at Pebble Beach), iron play will be crucial this week, as you can see from the GIR and SG: APP average from the last 6 winners here. Out of the last 6 winners, all of them have been inside the top 10 for Greens in Regulation and all of them have been in the top 20 for SG: APP.
Staying on the stats from above, 5 of the previous 6 winners all ranked in the top 5 for putting averages that week, just Dan Berger was the odd one out in 2021 when he basically destroyed the field with his short wedges and proximity to the hole.
Poa Annua greens are rock solid to putt on and requires a certain amount of experience on them to roll it well. Hence the winners here of late are certainly well known for their good work they do year on year with the flat stick.
Taking care of the Par 4s has always been a key factor here in the last 5 years with the winner finishing 2nd each year for Par 4 performance, so scoring low on the 29 Par 4s presented here this week will not harm at all.
I will finish with Course History, we have weeks on Tour where we see a variety of results at a specific course over a number of years however, this tournament year upon year sees the same style of player have a great week. For example, Jason Day in the last 6 years here has gone; T7-4-T4-T2-T5-T24, good right? It seems if you have the eye for the short tests these resorts present then you consistently perform well on them year upon year.
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AM Betting Tips
5 each way picks again for you this week. 1pt each way on all 5 as usual! Places taken are in brackets, good luck.
1. Joel Dahmen 30/1
2. Thomas Detry 45/1
3. Taylor Moore 60/1
4. Will Gordon 75/1
5. Kevin Yu 140/1