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Remind me next time

Well, what a week that was in Tulsa. JT the eventual winner via a 3 hole playoff with Will Zalatoris who both finished at -5. Thomas managed to overturn an 8 hole deficit on Sunday to be crowned PGA Champion for the second time in his career.

Condolences to the big Chilean Mito Pereira who had a storming first 3 days to lead the championship by three shots going into Sunday. He played some really patient and quality golf for 17 holes, then the one bad swing of the day led to a double bogey on the 18th hole and meant he missed out on the eventual playoff by 1 shot.

Gutting for him and his fans all over Twitter who backed him at odds ranging upto 200/1.

A blank week for us unfortunately and my run in major championships continues its abysmal run. Xander Schauffele best of the lot in T13. The first two days had a clear draw bias with the weather and sadly 3 of our guys were affected by this.

Charles Schwab Challenge Preview

Onto this week then, and its the turn of Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas to host this weeks event - the Charles Schwab Challenge. I am writing this preview from a sun bed on a beach in Portugal, so if this is briefer than usual then please bare with me. Back to normal next week.

Colonial has a set position on the PGA Tour calendar and has done for many years, in fact its the longest running host for a PGA Tour tournament we see, holding this event 75 times so far, dating back to 1946.

About Colonial Country Club

  • Par 70, 7209 yards approx.
  • John Bredemus & Perry Maxwell design
  • Bermuda grass from Tee 2 Green, Bentgrass greens
  • 3 x Par 3s ranging from 190-247 yards
  • 12 x Par 4s ranging from 387-483 yards
  • 2 x Par 5s @ 565 yards and 635 yards
  • Tree lined fairways, thick rough
  • Tiny greens

A lovely and easy on the eye golf course for the viewer this week, not so much as easy for the players. This will test the guys again this week big style.

You may notice that co-designer of this course is Perry Maxwell. The very same Perry Maxwell that designed Southern Hills which was in play last week for the PGA Championship. The similarities to last week do not stop there either. Testing tee shots, smaller than average greens and deep bunkering protecting the small greens are seen throughout the course.

I have seen in a lot of articles than 2/3 guys last week quoted that Southern Hills was ‘Colonial on steroids’ so the players clearly see the link also.

Tee shots will require less than driver plenty of times again to navigate dog legs/narrow fairways to give the guys the best chance of hitting the tiny greens with their approach shots. Lets have a look how the last 5 winners won here.

Charles Schwab Challenge Past Winners

2021 Jason Kokrak -14

  • 1st OTT
  • 2nd T2G
  • 8th APP
  • 2nd GIR
  • 42nd Scr
  • 9th PA

2020 Daniel Berger -15 (Play off win over Collin Morikawa)

  • 19th OTT
  • 4th T2G
  • 5th APP
  • 4th GIR
  • 25th Scr
  • 8th PA

2019 Kevin Na -13

  • 18th OTT
  • 2nd T2G
  • 1st APP
  • 1st GIR
  • 15th Scr
  • 5th PA

2018 Justin Rose -20

  • 4th OTT
  • 1st T2G
  • 1st APP
  • 1st GIR
  • 30th Scr
  • 5th PA

2017 Kev Kisner -10

  • 30th OTT
  • 5th T2G
  • 23rd APP
  • 2nd GIR
  • 2nd Scr
  • 28th PA

Stat Averages - Score -14

  • 14th OTT
  • 3rd T2G
  • 8th APP
  • 2nd GIR
  • 23rd Scr
  • 11th PA

What can we see from this then?

  • Last 5 winners all came top 4 in GIR
  • Last 5 winners came top 5 in T2G
  • 4/5 winners came top 8 in Approach play
  • Not on the stats but all 5 winners came in the top 17 for Driving Accuracy

Stats to consider this week

  • OTT/Driving Accuracy
  • GIR/Proximity to the hole from fairway
  • Scrambling from the rough
  • One putt percentages/Putting Averages

Charles Schwab Challenge Odds

odds

Five of the top 10 in the OWGR are here this week; Last weeks champ JT, World Number 1 Scottie Scheffler, Morikawa, Speith and Hovland. Even though it is the week after a major, Colonial is a course that the guys love playing and that is evident by the standard set here in the declarations.

These 5 guys fill up the first 5 in the market unsurprisingly. Thomas is the favourite at odds of 10/1, Scheffler comes in fresh from last weeks missed cut at 11/1, Speith will look to dominate again in Texas at 12/1 and the out of form Morikawa and Hovland then come in at 16/1 each.

Pick of this bunch for me has to Speith. He may be very short in the market but it is well deserved. He seems to play his best stuff in Texas where he grew up, 9 starts here at Colonial result in 7-14-2-1-2-32-8-10-2 and his game looks in the best shape I’ve seen it for a good couple of years, especially with the driver.

Zalatoris 18/1, Max Homa 25/1 and Sam Burns at 25/1 are the only guys to come in between the top 5 and 30/1 int he market. Zalatoris coming off an unfortunate playoff loss last week so i can only guess what another near miss has done for his confidence. 

Sam Burns is too erratic for me here on a tight course where players will need to grind at some stage of the week, so I am siding with Max Home at 25/1 out of these guys in this range. He has found a love for playing really well around testing golf courses of late where he has ground out some impressive results, another good finish last week and this set up looks to suit him again.

It was a top finish from Tommy Fleetwood last week at a testing course, he has what it takes to back that performance up here this week but he is a little short in the market, however.

Abe Ancer has some great form here, with a top 15 finish last week mixed in together with his accurate Off the Tee game, he looks like he has the recipe to succeed. Again, his odds are too short for me due to his inconsistencies shown this year.

Sunjae is a type of player i would have backed here normally, however he is arriving here fresh from a bout of Covid so who knows how he is feeling.

And one of my faves - Ryan Palmer. A member here at Colonial and once a resident to the Texas area. He has some great form here to go with a few decent finishes in the last mont or two, he may be worth chancing at 70/1 figures if you’re feeling lucky!

Charles Schwab Challenge Tips

Taken with a bookie who are paying 8 places each way this week. However my headline pick is taken with a company that only offer 5 places, gone with them to get the price a little better, 1pt each way as always. Good luck all! Lets get back to winning ways!

Jordan Speith 14/1

Davis Riley 50/1

Tom Hoge 60/1

Lucas Herbert 100/1

Lucas Glover Top 20 finish 5/1

Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Tips