A somewhat frustrating week again last week at the rain affected Nedbank Golf Challenge. Rasmus Hojgaard, our 22/1 tip from last week's preview held the 54 hole lead and started his 4th round steadily, going 1 under through his first 7 holes which meant he led by 1 going into the 4 hour rain delay they suffered.
When returning to the course, Rasmus was not at his best to say the least, his next 5 holes consisted of 3 bogeys, a double bogey and an eagle... it was a frustrating hour to watch that is for sure!
He stumbled home to shoot a round of 5 over par and in the end managing to just cling on to an 8th place finish, which earned us the place money.
Tommy Fleetwood defended his Nedbank title after having to wait 3 years for it to be played, an impressive 5 under par round where he went toe to toe with in form Ryan Fox down the stretch was a top watch late on Sunday.
DP World Tour Championship Betting Odds
We move onto the big one where the top 50 players in the Race2Dubai rankings all come to Jumeirah Golf Estates, Dubai to try and win the lot. Of those who have qualified, just 3 players are unable to make the trip to Dubai due to other circumstances, they are; Will Zalatoris, defending champion Collin Morikawa and Thomas Pieters. This means numbers 51, 52 and 53 in the R2D standngs are all invited to Dubai to take part, a huge opportunity for the guys who wasn't expecting to play! These 3 are; David Law, Paul Waring and Haotong Li.
Earth Course - Jumeriah Golf Estates Information
- Par 72, 7675 yards approx.
- Greg Norman design, 2009
- Fairways/Rough/Greens - Bermuda grass
- Massive/Wide fairways, numerous bunkers/sandy areas
- Huge, undulating greens that run quickly
- 4 x Par 3s - ranging from 186-245 yards
- 10 x Par 4s - ranging from 371-499 yards (6/10 over 450 yards)
- 4 x Par 5s - ranging from 572-620 yards (two over 626 yards)
Long, wide fairways with fast and firm large greens means we are in for an absolute cracker this week, as it has been the last few years here in Dubai with the last 4/5 winners of this event all 18/1 or below in the betting market before the off, so high calibre winners seem to be trending here with the big boys coming out to perform their best on this stunning course.
Since the course made its debut in 2010 on the DP World Tour, it has been a permanent fixture on the schedule and one players look out for for sure! So we have plenty of course form to analyse and a lot of stats to go through, so lets get it!
Previous Five Winners
2021 winner – Collin Morikawa -17
- 10th DD
- 5th DA
- 8th OTT
- 3rd T2G
- 7th GIR
- 10th APP
- 15th Putting
2020 winner – Matthew Fitzpatrick -15
- 16th DD
- 1st DA
- 8th OTT
- 8th T2G
- 7th GIR
- 33rd APP
- 5th Putting
2019 winner – Jon Rahm -19
- 8th DD
- 8th DA
- 4th OTT
- 1st T2G
- 1st GIR
- 4th APP
- 1st Putting
2018 winner – Danny Willett -18
- 16th DD
- 12th DA
- 3rd GIR
- 1st Putting
2017 winner – Jon Rahm -19
- 4th DD
- 22th DA
- 26th GIR
- 3rd Putting
Average stats for the past 5 winners - Score -18
- 11th DD
- 10th DA
- 7th OTT
- 4th T2G
- 5th GIR
- 16th APP
- 5th Putting
Stats to Consider
- SG:OTT
- SG:T2G
- GIR
- SCR
- Par 4 scoring
SG:OTT/SG:T2G/GIR
This week i could put all the stats up in my model, as the recent winners have all been stellar players with a great all round game. We can see this in the above stats where only 1 stat was above the 30th position, and that was Fitzpatrick's Approach play in 2020.
Fairways and greens are wide this week, so finding them shouldn't be too much of a problem for the guys, buts it's all about finding them in the right areas to optimise scoring chances, and its the guys that have excelled all year in the T2G catergories i will be favouring most this week.
Scrambling
The scrambling stats for the previous winners aren't shown above, but given the size of these greens this week and the sharp run off areas that surround the undulating greens, guys will have to chip/putt well to avoid dropping careless shots. 3 putt avoidance may also be a factor this week that we can look into more.
Par 4 scoring
Stats from previous years after digging for them show that these holes are the ones where the winners have made their ground on their opponents. Yes the Par 5s are always scorable holes, but we have 2 monsters this week over 620 yards, so only a very select few will be able to find these holes in 2 shots. Means the players are left with a set of 10 Par 4s, 6 of which are between 450-499 and 4 that are less than 450. Not long Par 4s by Tour standard so they really need to attack these holes. A guy with a realy consistent T2G will thrive on these sort of holes.
DP World Tour Championship Betting Tips
5 each way selections again for you guys! Places taken are in brackets, lets carry on the run of 4 weeks in a row with some return and let's end the DP World Tour season on a high! Good luck all
Shane Lowry 18/1 (3)
Min Woo Lee 28/1 (5)
Antoine Rozner 55/1 (8)
Gavin Green 55/1 (8)
Sebastien Soderberg 100/1 (8)
