Register for FREE to read this article.

Already have an account?

You have article views left.
Register for FREE to read more articles.

Already have an account?

Remind me next time

Our first returns of 2023 came last week at the American Express courtesy of Taylor Montgomery at 50/1.

For 17 holes on his final round Taylor played some unbelievable golf, and at some stage seemed to hit his golf ball on a piece of string.

An errant tee shot on his 17th hole resulted in hitting the water, however with the brilliant efforts made on previous holes it meant he already had wrapped up the full place. 

At one stage he did lie 1 shot off the eventual winner Jon Rahm, but always looked to be 1 or 2 strokes shy of the pace that the Spaniard was setting.

Another victory for Rahm, means he has had 4 victories and 2 top 10 finishes in his last 6 worldwide starts and has a 66.3 stroke average for his last 3 tournaments… when I say Rahm is running hot right now, I am not joking around.
 

Offer Content Widget

Farmers Insurance Open Betting Odds
 

odds

Onto this week and it’s a Wednesday-Saturday event for the second year in a row, where we find ourselves at Torrey Pines GC split over the North and South courses. 

In my opinion, this is one of the best non major weeks in the calendar on Tour. The South course here at Torrey is up there for me alongside the likes of Quail Hollow, Muirfield Village GC and Jacks place for non-regular major golf courses that are a superb test for the players and a place where I have had the last 3 winners in 2022, 2021 and 2020.

Unlike the past several weeks on Tour, this setup will be a proper challenge to the players where they will have to grind at times and minimise bogies as much as possible. The South Course held the 2008 and 2021 US Opens which Tiger Woods and Jon Rahm were victorious in when they both showed patience all week to shoot final scores of -1 and-6 to take the plaudits those weeks.

Players will either play their 1st or 2nd rounds on the easier North Course but then play the rest (cut depending) on the tricky South Course. Let's get into the Course specifics at both venues.


Torrey Pines GC North/South Courses


North Course

 

  • Par 72
  • 7258 yards
  • Bentgrass greens
  • 4 x Par 3s – ranging from 202 – 241 yards
  • 10 x Par 4s – ranging from 393 – 495 yards
  • 4 x Par 5s – ranging from 520 – 556 yards
  • William Bell Originally designed the course – Tom Weiskopf redesign in 2016

South Course

 

  • Par 72
  • 7765 yards
  • Poa Annua greens
  • 4 x Par 3s – ranging from 177 – 227 yards
  • 10 x Par 4s – ranging from 389 – 505 yards
  • 4 x Par 5s – ranging from 564 – 621 yards
  • William Bell Originally designed the course – Rees Jones redesign in 2001

The North Course represents the easiest challenge out of the two courses, however as I mentioned the players only play this once so need to take advantage of that one round. We have seen in previous years that the eventual winner has done exactly that.
The North sets up as a standard Par 72 with not a great length involved at all. All Par 5s are reachable in 2 for players as they all fall under 560 yards. The Par 3s and 4s are quite lengthy so ball striking will need to be on point for the guys when they come to this course.
The South Course is where it gets interesting. Narrow fairways and smaller than average Poa Annua greens present a proper challenge to the players if they aren’t on their normal games. Meaning, Driving Accuracy and Greens in Regulation numbers are much lower than Tour averages every year here at Torrey Pines so it may be worth looking elsewhere for stats indications. Let's have a look into the previous 5 winners and their performance stats for that week.

Previous winners and their Performance Stats

2022 Winner – Luke List -15 (Playoff)

  • 21th OTT 
  • 5th T2G             
  • 11th GIR            
  • 4th APP             
  • 6th Scr               
  • 28th PA
  • 12th Par 3s        
  • 4th Par 4s          
  • 12th Par 5s


2021 Winner - Patrick Reed -14

  • 30th OTT           
  • 12th T2G           
  • 60th GIR            
  • 39th APP           
  • 6th Scr               
  • 1st PA
  • 30th Par 3s        
  • 1st Par 4s           
  • 3rd Par 5s


2020 Winner – Marc Leishman -15

 

  • 45th OTT           
  • 16th T2G           
  • 14th GIR            
  • 5th APP             
  • 4th Scr               
  • 4th PA
  • 1st Par 3s           
  • 2nd Par 4s          
  • 35th Par 5s


2019 Winner – Justin Rose -21

  • 13th OTT           
  • 2nd T2G             
  • 2nd GIR              
  • 5th APP             
  • 56th Scr             
  • 3rd PA
  • 1st Par 3s           
  • 12th Par 4s        
  • 4th Par 5s


2018 Winner – Jason Day -10 (Playoff)

  • 8th OTT             
  • 25th T2G           
  • 11th GIR            
  • 59th APP           
  • 16th Scr             
  • 4th PA
  • 40th Par 3s        
  • 1st Par 4s           
  • 10th Par 5s


2017 Winner – Jon Rahm -13

 

  • 1st OTT              
  • 1st T2G              
  • 12th GIR            
  • 4th APP             
  • 14th Scr             
  • 10th PA
  • 28th Par 3s        
  • 6th Par 4s          
  • 2nd Par 5s


Average stats for the past 5 winners – Average Score -15

 

  • 20th OTT           
  • 10th T2G           
  • 18th GIR            
  • 19th APP           
  • 17th Scr             
  • 8th PA
  • 19th Par 3s        
  • 4th Par 4s          
  • 11th Par 5s


Stats to Consider


A tale of two halves in the last five years. Rahm, Day and Rose all saw brilliant OTT and T2G stats where they dominated throughout, whereas Reed and Leishman in 2020 and 2021 got in done on and around the greens superbly where GIR weren’t necessary for their victories, and then List turned up last year and did what he did best and tore the course apart from T2G and didn’t have to rely on the putter as much (probably a good thing as it isn’t his strong point). 

It's interesting to see that a couple of different skill sets can get the job done at Torrey Pines and that’s what makes this such a thrilling week to preview year on year.

Having said that, a good Off The Tee game I think is needed here to perform well this week. Fairways will indeed be missed but slight course management will come into play to miss them in the right areas. 

Approach and Green in Regulation stats have varied within recent winners, some unreal and some not so good. I have decided not to focus too much on approach play this week due to the smallness of the greens, I will revert my focus onto players who work well around them instead.

Putting experience here and putting experience on Poa Annua greens will also be on my list, we do not see Poa much on Tour throughout the year, I believe only in the Californian swing we see it. It can prove difficult to putt on and a tricky grain to read so a specialist is hard to come by.

Long Par 4, Par 5 scoring along with lengthy approach shots (roughly 150-200yard approaches) I will consider also. The Par 4s and 5s on the North Course all look pretty straight and simple, with the Par 5s all reachable in 2 for all of the guys so it will be key they take care of these on the sole occasion they face them this week. 

The Par 4s on the South Course are tricky however, with 9/10 of them being over 450 yards, hence why I will be looking at the long approaches stats as most guys will face a 150-200 yard second shot on these holes, so taking care of these holes/minimising bogies will be key. 

2 Par 5s over 600 yards and the 2 others over 550 yards means there’s a mixed chance presented to the players with varying difficulty throughout. So focusing on the scoring element of guys on certain holes I feel will pay dividends.

Farmers Insurance Open Betting Tips


Five each way selections once again for you Ladies & Gents, 10pts spread evenly across the 5 (1pt e/w) Good Luck as always


1. Collin Morikawa 14/1 (8 places)
 

singleSelection

2. Tony Finau 14/1 (8 places)
 

singleSelection

3. Hideki Matsuyama 28/1 (8 places)
 

singleSelection

4. Maverick McNealy 33/1 (8 places)
 

singleSelection

5. Thomas Detry 66/1 (8 places)
 

singleSelection