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Remind me next time

Back to profitable ways for the preview last week at the Travelers Championships! A T6 finish for my 110/1 tip Kevin Kisner returned over 100% of our normal 10pt stake on the week.

4/5 tis made the cut going into the weekend and they all sat within the top 30 going into the final round, so we had chances galore! But it was Kisner who kept the pedal to the metal and got the place for us.

Eventual winner Xander Schauffele has been an unfortunate regular to the previews this year, so I was delighted to see him get his first full field, stroke play event win for over 4 years.

John Deere Classic Preview

Players this week travel to Western Illinois, to the area of Silvis for the annual ‘Tractor Classic’, a typical pun you’ll likely hear a few times this week…

The JDC has been running for over 50 years running as several different names, and has been held at TPC Deere Run for 21 years now since 2000.

Due to where it has sat in the PGA schedule the past few years, the Classic has never drawn a massive field class wise, and we unfortunately see the same here this week. Maybe a chance however to come up with another 3 figure gem?

TPC Deere Run

  • Par 71, 7270 yards approx.
  • D.D Weibring design
  • Bentgrass fairways/greens, thick Kentucky Bluegrass rough
  • 4 x Par 3s – ranging from 158-226 yards
  • 11 x Par 4s – ranging from 367-503 yards, only 4 above 450 yards
  • 3 x Par 5s – 561, 569 and 596 yards. 2/3 easily reachable depending on the drive.

Dare I say it, but this is a typical TPC set up. Average yardage that brings in all sorts of previous winners, undulating fairways which experience on them is paramount, large greens that can’t be missed in the wrong places, thick and very penal rough which players want to avoid mostly this week and more importantly, we are going to seen a heck load of birdies this week – weather dependent.

The hole set up is pretty much as easy as it looks, the 4 par 3s are pretty straight, hitting into large greens that are raised from the fairways. Missing them will be costly and rely on the players short game heavily, but with the greens being so large you have to ask if these pros should be missing them?

The par 4s are a pretty simple bunch, with 7/11 of them lying under 450 yards in length. The shorter holes rely on the undulating fairways and forced layup tee shots to throw the players off, by even having their ball kicked into the thick rough or their approach shots into the greens being longer than they normally would.

And finally, the Par 5s. A trio of them with water in play on all of them, with water guarding the front part of the green on two of them which players will need to be mindful of on their second shots into the large greens. But eagles/birdies will need to be made on these holes this week if players want to be up there come Sunday afternoon.

John Deere Classic Past Winners

2021 Winner – Lucas Glover -19

  • 29th OTT
  • 4th T2G
  • 15th GIR
  • 3rd APP
  • 5th SCR
  • 10th PA

2019 Winner – Dylan Fritelli -21

  • 10th OTT
  • 15th T2G
  • 10th GIR
  • 60th APP
  • 1st SCR
  • 22nd PA

2018 Winner – Michael Kim -27

  • 34th OTT
  • 16th T2G
  • 3rd GIR
  • 11th APP
  • 1st SCR
  • 1st PA

2017 Winner – Bryson DeChambeau -18

  • 17th OTT
  • 18th T2G
  • 11th GIR
  • 27th APP
  • 29th SCR
  • 10th PA

2016 Winner – Ryan Moore -22

  • 23rd OTT
  • 1st T2G
  • 1st GIR
  • 2nd APP
  • 1st SCR
  • 6th PA

Average stats for the past 5 winners – Average Score -21

  • 23rd OTT
  • 11th T2G
  • 8th GIR
  • 21st APP
  • 7th SCR
  • 10th PA

A week like no other this week, where most Strokes Gained categories that I analyse have no relevance/trend for each of the last 5 winners.

We will focus this week on the metric stuffs this week;

  • Driving Accuracy – to avoid the gnarly and penal rough that surrounds the fairways
  • GIR/Proximity to the hole – to not only hit these greens in reg. but to hit the correct areas of them.
  • Scrambling – to be able to get up and down when players miss these large surfaces in tricky positions/in the rough
  • Putting Average on Bentgrass greens/at TPC Deere Run – the course will relinquish plenty of opportunities this week and players will need to convert them more often than not.

John Deere Classic Betting Odds

odds

Whilst writing this, the best player in the field OWGR wise has withdrawn, and that is Daniel Berger. He opened up at odds of around 9/1 favourite. Hideous odds but that just shows us what type of field this is.

Now he is out we are left with 3 golfers in the top 70 of the OWGR… yes 3 that’s right. Webb Simpson, Sahith Theegala (thanks to his second place finish last week) and Christiaan Bezuidenhout.

Webb is market favourite at 11/1. Webb had a strange 2/3 years where he didn’t really feature on leaderboards, really unsure what happened to the guy. But he has shown some resurgence over the last year. He hits it straight, he strikes his irons pure and he putts like hell. This should suit him down to the ground but I would never take the risk at 11/1.

Adam Hadwin is second favourite at 16/1 and is enjoying a really successful year by his standards capped off with a T7 in the latest edition of the US Open 2 weeks ago. But again, 16/1 is really pushing it considering how wayward he can be.

Jump up to 22/1 where we have Sahith Theegala, last weeks 2nd place finisher. No doubt he will still be seething and kicking himself after double bogeying the 18th hole on Sunday which lost him the championship by a single shot. Hes a short, tight course specialist but you have to think what that did too him last week, so I am more than happy to watch him this week. However, would be really glad to see the lad get his first win after what has been a great rookie season.

There is just one more golfer in the market that comes before the 30/1 range starts, and that is Denny McCarthy. If the field was deeper I would probably be taking Denny this week if he was around 10/15 points deeper, but I cannot stomach the 25s on him this week unfortunately.

The 30s and above range comes next so I will end with my ‘who just missed out’ list.

Patrick Rodgers, Mav McNealy and Alex Smalley.

John Deere Classic Tips

5 each way selections again this week, all 1pt each way with 8 places as always. All based around the stats I was looking for this week with TPC Deere Run experience thrown in! Good Luck all!

Chez Reavie 50/1
Kevin Streelman 60/1
Martin Laird 60/1
Tyler Duncan 80/1
Nate Lashley 90/1

John Deere Classic Betting Tips