Unfortunately, a pair of T20s and a T33 was our best showings from the tips last week. Justin Thomas (16/1) and Viktor Hovland (28/1) who both finished T20 and never really shown signs of getting it going throughout the week. They were victims of the hard and firm conditions Riviera presented last week for the guys.
A quick mention for the GOAT, Tiger Woods. Exceeding much expectation, he had a marvelous week all-in-all. He opened with a round of -2 (69) and followed this on Friday with a +3 (74) to make the weekend cut on the mark.
The impressiveness does not stop there, he rallied on his 3rd round to shoot a cracking -4 round (67) to really thrill the sell out crowd. He stumbled on his final round however, to a final score of -1 and a T45 finish, where he started to look a bit jaded throughout Sunday.
Tiger came out last week in his press conferences and says he plays to win, however I’m sure he will be quietly surprised on how he faired last week.
Last note on The Genesis Invitational, and that’s on the eventual winner Jon Rahm. The guy is truly a machine and is playing some of the best and most consistent golf we have seen for years (maybe since a certain Tiger Woods was in his prime). In his last 13 worldwide starts, Rahm has managed 5 wins, 7 top 10 finishes and a T15 finish. Unreal right?
The good news for us punters is that he nor Rory are at the Honda Classic this week so we may have a chance. However, looking at the early field declarations and odds available, it looks a week for the outsiders to prevail. The average odds at the start of the week for the last 10 winners is around 155/1… with 5 of those winners 100/1 or higher.
The Honda Classic Betting Odds
Players travel 2700 miles east to Palm Beach Gardens in Florida for The Honda Classic, home of the Bear Trap (Holes 15, 16 and 17). Another classical test this week played on the Champion Course at PGA National Resort & Spa which will present the players with a stiff, windy test, with heavy bunkering throughout the course and water in play on 15 of the holes this week.
A somewhat weaker field this week to follow the stellar outing we saw last week, a mixture between time of the year and distance from last weeks Los Angeles trip means that very few stand from last week.
Champion Course @ PGA National
- Par 70
- 7125 yards approx.
- Tom/George Fazio Design
- Parkland style course
- Bermuda greens – larger than usual
- Thick Bermuda Rough
- 4 x Par 3s - range from 175-226 yards
- 12 x Par 4s - range from 365-508 yards
- Just 2 Par 5s - both less than 560 yards
A really tough set up this week, just five out the last 15 winners here at PGA National have managed to get to double figures under par for the week.
Thick and penal rough surround narrow and sloping fairways which the players will have to navigate if they want an attempted shot into the large greens that they must make sure they hit in the right places to give them the best chance of scoring.
A strange set up where players are offered just 2 par 5s which they will have to make sure they at least birdie more times than not as the tough Par 3s that are here this week especially around the Bear Trap are some of the toughest we see all year and players will have to grind to avoid dropping too many shots as they inevitably will happen this week.
Previous Winners and their Performance Stats
2022 Winner – Sepp Straka -10
- 1st OTT
- 4th T2G
- 1st GIR
- 20th APP
- 31st ATG
- 27th PA
2021 Winner – Matt Jones -12
- 10th OTT
- 1st T2G
- 5th GIR
- 7th APP
- 2nd ATG
- 5th PA
2020 Winner – Sunjae Im -6
- 11th OTT
- 1st T2G
- 2nd GIR
- 5th APP
- 5th ATG
- 29th PA
2019 Winner – Keith Mitchell -9
- 12th OTT
- 1st T2G
- 22nd GIR
- 7th APP
- 6th ATG
- 18th PA
2018 Winner – Justin Thomas -8 (Play off winner over Luke List)
- 13th OTT
- 1slt T2G
- 14th GIR
- 1st APP
- 15th ATG
- 34th PA
2017 Winner – Rickie Fowler -12
- 10th OTT
- 10th T2G
- 16th GIR
- 16th APP
- 37th ATG
- 10th PA
Average stats for the past 6 winners – Average Score -10
- 9th OTT
- 3rd T2G
- 10th GIR
- 9th APP
- 15th ATG
- 20th PA
Stats to Consider
The winner this week won’t come from the best putter in the field, it is all about what the players do from Tee2Green that will clinch the win.
With bunkers in play and water aplenty, approach shots will be vital in missing these where possible. This can be seen by the 4 winners between 2021 and 2018 all ranking 1st in the field and in fact last year when Sepp finished 4th in the field for T2G performance, every player who finished in the top 7 on the leaderboard all ranked inside the top 12 for the stat that week.
In the last three years, GIR stats have been astronomically good, with the three winners all in the top five for GIR that week. Looking further afield, 10 of the last 16 winners have all finished in the top 10 for GIR on their winning weeks.
Scrambling will have to figure here this week, to navigate out of the thick rough on offer and to work the ball into the correct areas on the greens.
I know I have included GIR too which kind of juxtaposes my point, but even the winner will miss greens this week and will find themselves in trouble with the hazards on offer. A better than average scrambling game will be needed, shown with the Top 5 players on the leaderboard the last 5/6 years have all been in the top 20 for scrambling.
Lastly of all, and it is touched on above in my previous point about players finding themselves in trouble at times this week, Bogey Avoidance will be high on my list to consider. By far the toughest test so far this season they will face this week so players who can grind out results and get through tough holes where they can minimize damages will be crucial come Sunday afternoon.
The Honda Classic Betting Tips
I have six each-way picks again this week. It will be 12pts spread across all six selections- three good solid outsiders and three inform ball strikers. Good luck all.
1. Denny McCarthy 25/1
2. Aaron Wise 25/1
3. Chris Kirk 25/1
4. Erik Van Rooyen 80/1
5. Ben Taylor 110/1
6. Brent Grant 250/1
