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Remind me next time

Was a good and profitable week for us in the Canadian Open. Like so many weeks now, all 5 tips made the 36 hole cut and put themselves in a great position going into the weekend.

Chris Kirk at 45/1 and Keith Mitchell at 60/1 eventually finished T7 to get full place returns for us. Matt Fitzpatrick missed a 4 foot par putt on the 18th green to miss out on the places, which would have given us our 3rd place for the week.

The victor in the end was Rory McIlroy who defended his Canadian Open title he won in 2019. A stellar top 4 in the end on the leaderboard with Rory being followed by Tony Finau, Justin Thomas and Sam Burns. The big guys getting geared up just in time for the big one this week…

US Open Preview

Well, the year is absolutely flying by. I cannot believe I am sitting here preparing to write about the US Open and the 3rd major championship of the year! What a great week we have in store again for us to sink our teeth into.

Every major championship is played on a testing course, never giving the players any respite. But the courses US Open’s are played on are next level tricky. This year the USGA has given the US Open to The Country Club which is located in Brookline, Massachusetts.

Staging its first tournament in 1902 which was the US Women’s Amateur, The Country Club has held a total of 30 tour events since. Most notably; 2 US Opens (1913, 1988), 6 US Amateurs, 3 US Women’s Amateurs and 1 Ryder Cup in 1999. The only really relevance to take from the history here is that Matthew Fitzpatrick won the US Amateur here in 2013 where he beat Oliver Goss 4&3 in the final. Quick note on those who tee’d it up that week who will be in Massachusetts this week; Matt Fitzpatrick, Corey Conners, Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Matthias Schwab, Patrick Rodgers, Bryson DeChambeau, Adam Schenk, Richy Werensky and Chad Ramey. Lets have a look at the course the guys will compete on;

The Country Club

  • Par 70 – 7260 yards approx.
  • Bentgrass/Poa Annua mix greens
  • Original designers – Willie Campebell & Alex Campbell, 2009 reno. done by Gil Hause
  • 4 x Par 3s – ranging from 131-215 yards
  • 12 x Par 4s – ranging from – 373-510 yards, 8/12 are over 450 yards
  • 2 x Par 5s – 557 and 619 yards
  • Thick, penal rough
  • Tiny greens
  • Endless natural hazards in the middle of fairways and rough

Course Overview

I have seen the usual videos on Twitter from golfers that arrived at The County Club last week of them dropping balls into the rough - it looks thick and gnarly. Put it this way, the guys will not want to be spending too much time in it this week if they want to do well in the thing. Erratic drives this eek are not an option.

Greens are tiny, so approach shots from the fairway will be key this week to hold them in regulation.

The Par 3s on site all will play slightly over par, the shortest is the Par 3 11th hole. Players will tee off from a platform and hit down into the green which is surrounded by penalty areas, so it will clearly be tougher than it looks on the scorecard.

The par 4s here are the defence of the course. 66% of them are over 450 yards and a couple are over 500. Several lay up shots off the tee will be required to navigate doglegs and players will have to generally grind as much as possible to get through some of them with a par score.

One Par 5 is reachable for all in 2 shots and the other Par 5 is a 3 shot hole, so we cant really draw an conclusions from these. Birdie the one and scrape a par on the longer hole, simple enough?

US Open Past Winners

 

  • 2021: Jon Rahm -6 – Torrey Pines South Course?
  • 2020: Bryson DeChambeau -6 – Winged Foot
  • 2019: Gary Woodland -13 – Pebble Beach
  • 2018: Brooks Koepka +1 – Shinnecock Hills
  • 2017: Brooks Koepka -16 Erin Hills

We cant draw many conclusions from the past winners as they are played at all kinds of courses and if I’m honest, longer ones that we will see this week, but this will provide a different test. But high scores will be a factor again this week as we have seen at 3 of the last 5 renewals of the US Open.

Stats to Consider

I feel like I have previewed and the guys have visited some really tough course of late so I will keep it nice and simple again this week.

  • SG: OTT – accuracy is a must to include
  • Greens in Regulation, long irons
  • Scrambling/Scrambling from the rough
  • Bogey Avoidance
  • Recent form/major form
  • Par 4 scoring 450+ yards

SG: OTT – We will see a lot of dog legs in play this week and frequent lay ups being made by the players, so position off the tee is crucial and hitting the fairway more often than not is a must.

GIR – As I have mentioned, players will be faced with tiny greens this week. I have read that they are among the top 5 for the smallest greens we see on Tour, so hitting them in regulation is going to be vital.

Scrambling/Scrambling from the rough – Always a stat that needs to be considered in majors, especially with the small greens as even the eventual winner of the US Open will miss some greens from time to time this week. So getting up and down soundly will be as key as ever, I have also included scrambling from the rough as the thickness of the rough will play a massive part this week.

Bogey Avoidance – Again, like the above stat, Bogey Avoidance needs to be factored in. Players will play on some really tough holes this week where Par and even sometimes Bogey will be a great score, so mentally and physically they will have to stay patient and plod around the course when they need too.

Recent form/major form – Every player looks forward to the majors and everyone loves to be playing well entering a major week. But we have seen trends in past Us Opens where recent form is vital. As your T2G game will always be magnified at these types of courses.

Par 4 scoring 450+ yards – Par 4s take up the majority of the holes this week and as ive said above, 66% of them are above 450 yards, so a look into those who prosper on long par 4s won’t go a miss this week.

US Open Betting Odds

odds

156 guys will tee it up in the 3rd major of the season and as you can imagine, the best of the best are here and the top end of the market looks as strong as its ever been, full of bundles of talent and recent form.

The only guy out of the OWGR top 50 to not play is Paul Casey who has expressed issues with his back so will not contend again this week which unfortunately has been the story of his year.

Guys that have gone over and joined the LIV series tour are coming back over to tee it up this week after being granted to play by the USGA following the PGA Tour suspending them… this includes the likes of former US Open champion Dustin Johnson.

Top of the market at 10/1, we have last week’s champion and the 2011 US Open champ Rory McIlroy. Too short for me for Rory in a major championship field. Okay he won well last week fending off JT and a charging Tony Finau but his driver will have to play ball a lot more this week in terms of accuracy and he does struggle with his 2nd and 3rd rounds in majors so he will need to improve on that.

2nd favourite at 12/1 we have the reigning PGA Champion Just Thomas. We always see odds for JT around this mark now even in the class fields and it is bang on considering his form and his prowess in majors. I won’t be backing him, but I surely would favour him over the favourite this week.

3rd favourite and perhaps the value play from the top of the market is world number one, Scottie Scheffler at 14/1. He has been in some blistering form this year and already has 1 major under his belt at a very tricky Augusta where the rough is notoriously thick and scrambling is a must…

The somewhat disjointed Jon Rahm is next at 16/1. This price looks huge on paper it really does. I just cannot trust him unfortunately at the minute, his OTT game is superb and has been the best on Tour for the last 2 years, but the Approach play and the putter are stone cold, needs a big week to change my mind.

Between 20/1 and 30/1 we have 10 players and they are all capable of big things; Cam Smith 20/1, Xander Schauffele 22/1, Jordan Speith 25/1, Patrick Cantlay 25/1, Matt Fitzpatrick 25/1, Sam Burns 28/1, Will Zalatoris 28/1, Collin Morikawa 28/1, Shane Lowry 30/1 and Viktor Hovland 30/1. A lot here to analyse so I will just give you my picks from the list. Xander, Speith and Lowry. These guys know how to grind it out on the biggest of stages. Regular readers will be bored of me mentioned Xander and Speith now at big tournaments and more often than not they provide us with at least a place this year. Lowry is enjoying a fine season in America and the T3 at The Masters was most impressive.

Prices and players to note above 30/1 are as follows; Dustin Johnson 35/1 - massive price on paper. Brooks Koepka 45/1 - again a massive price for a multiple US Open champion. Patrick Reed at 90/1 and Marc Leishman at 125/1 - these came every close to making my line up this week.

US Open Tips

Same format this week as ever, 4 each way selections at 8 places and 1 Top 20 play.

However, keep an eye on Bet365 throughout the week as they have really stepped up their golf betting markets and provide punters with some really juicy price boosts late on in the week.

  • Xander Schauffele 22/1
  • Shane Lowry 40/1 (boosted from 30/1 on Bet365)
  • Sunjae Im 50/1
  • Corey Conners 60/1
  • Top 20 finish – Alex Noren 5/1