After three days of remarkable horse racing, Cheltenham Festival reaches its final day - the Gold Cup day.
RacingGav is back with his final selections for Cheltenham including for the Gold Cup at 15:30 this afternoon.
Don't miss out on these bets.
Cheltenham Day 4 Prediction
1:30 Cheltenham Tips
2m1f (2m179y) (New) JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo)
Antepost – Lossiemouth (14/1), Blood Destiny (20/1), Zenta (25/1) & Gust Of Wind (28/1)
Selection:
Lossiemouth – 2pt Win – 13/8 (William Hill)
The first race looks to be between the top two in the market, Lossiemouth and Blood Destiny.
I’m with Paul Townend in thinking that Lossiemouth is the one to beat here and the market has the right favourite.
I was expecting her to need the run on her UK debut but she was mightily impressive to win.
She then won the Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle on Boxing Day very convincingly.
She was expected to win at the Dublin Racing Festival but she had a horrible run around there being hampered badly twice. She battled very well to finish second but she couldn’t reel in the winner Gala Marceau.
Given the distance she was beaten and how much interference she suffered, I think she would have won with a clear run and it was a moral victory.
Blood Destiny has done little wrong and it’s hard to assess the form accurately as many who he beat, wanted to be beaten for a handicap mark in the Boodles.
I think the two could be very close on ability but Lossiemouth receives a 7lb allowance for being a Mare and I think that’ll be the difference on the day.
Zenta and Gust Of Wind are very unexposed and could be anything, if you wanted a play at bigger prices.
2:10 Cheltenham Tips
2m1f (2m179y) (New) McCoy Contractors County Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+)
Antepost – Hunter’s Yarn (8/1) & Gin Coco (16/1)
Selections:
Path D’Oroux – 0.5pt Each Way – 20/1 (888, BetVictor & Betfred, 6 places)
I can see the strong case for Pembroke, Hunter’s Yarn and Filey Bay but this is a wide open race and I’d want more juice in a price to get involved than what they are offering today.
Gin Coco is a slightly bigger price around 10/1 and I’ve backed him at 16/1 Antepost. He would have a great chance.
For the selection today, I’ve got for one at 20/1 and that is Path D’Oroux. He won a P2P, a bumper and won very convincingly on his hurdling debut beating a nice horse in Itswhatunitesus. He was well supported for the Grade 1 Royal Bond but put in a poor run. He then ran a pretty quite race in another Grade 1 at Leopardstown.
He dropped into a Novice hurdle the last day, which was much calmer waters and he won nicely. The race did fall apart which has probably saved him being treated too harshly by the handicapper. Gavin Cromwell knows the time of day and I’m sure he wouldn’t be sending him over for this if he didn’t think he could be competitive. I always thought he would be a 2m4f horse in time so a strongly run race over 2m1f on soft ground, could play right into his hands and I can see him finishing off strongly when others are crying out for no more.
2:50 Cheltenham Tips
3m (2m7f213y) (New) Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) (Registered As The Spa Novices' Hurdle) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+)
Antepost – Three Card Brag (20/1), Sandor Clegane (25/1) & Embassy Gardens (33/1)
Selection:
Sandor Clegane – 0.5pt Each Way – 16/1 (6 places)
As you can see, I’ve got three here at big prices Antepost and Three Card Brag has been very well found in the market with Embassy Gardens into 10/1 as well.
The one that has held his price quite well is Sandor Clegane and he looks the value bet in the race today.
I have always thought three miles on soft ground would be his conditions. He was beaten by Three Card Brag over 2m but that wouldn’t have been ideal for either of them. Three Card Brag just had a bit more pace/class on the day. Today’s race is a very different challenge though.
He then got a step up in trip to 2m5f in a Maiden Hurdle and won in a canter. Last time out he ran in the Grade 1 Nathanial Lacey over 2m6f and ran a very respectable 3rd, just not quite having the pace of the front two on Yielding ground. Like I said, the step up to 3m and the soft ground here should be right up his street and this will have always been the plan, so expect to see him at his best today.
3:30 Cheltenham Tips
3m (2m7f213y) Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race)
Antepost – Galopin Des Champs (23.75/1), Bravemansgame (25/1), Noble Yeats (12/1), Conflated (24/1) & Protektorat (32/1)
Selections:
Conflated - 0.5pt Each Way – 16/1 (Paddy Power, 4 places)
Protektorat – 0.5pt Each Way – 18/1 (5 places)
As you can see, I’ve got Galopin Des Champs and Bravemansgame at very nice prices and I’d be happy if either could win.
The price has gone on both of them and so I’ve tried to find some value with today’s selections. Therefore I have gone with Conflated and Protekorat at big prices. I think the step up to this trip on soft ground will be right up his street and he has a very solid chance. I think they ran him in the wrong race last year because the owners are the owners of Ryanair who sponsor the other race. The other is Protekorat who was third in last year’s Gold Cup. That race wouldn’t have suited him as it was a steady pace and then a sprint on better ground. This soft ground will be right up his street. He was undercooked in the Cotswold Chase, so you can forget that run. Skelton will have him to tuned up to the minute for this.
4:10 Cheltenham Tips
3m2½f (3m2f70y) (New) St. James's Place Festival Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase (Class 2) (5yo+)
Antepost – Vaucelet (6/1) & Billaway (10/1)
Selections:
Vaucelet – 2pt Win – 11/4 (William Hill)
The Storyteller – 0.5pt Each Way – 12/1 (Bet365, 4 places)
I’m going with two in the Hunters Chase. I backed Vaucelet at 6/1 Antepost and I still think there is value at the current 11/4. Christie is a master in these types of races and he could have brought this horse to the race last year. He’s bided his time with him and I think he is the one to beat here. He should have won at Punchestown last spring but he made a bad mistake at the last. I’d expect him to reverse that form with Billaway and come out on top.
For one at more of a value price, I’d take a chance on The Storyteller. He was a very good horse in his day including form at the Festival in previous years. Jamie Codd rides which is a big plus in a race like this and first time headgear goes on. As Gordon Elliot showed yesterday with Sire Du Berlais, he can get these older horses ready to perform on the big day.
I like Secret Investor and Not That Fuisse but I think both would prefer better ground so unless the ground dries out through the day, I’d be happy to take them on.
4:50 Cheltenham Tips
2m4½f (2m4f127y) (New) Mrs Paddy Power Mares' Chase (Registered As The Liberthine Mares' Chase) (Grade 2) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+)
Antepost – Allegorie De Vassy (25/1) & Impervious (2/1)
Selection – No bet.
I’m not advising a bet in this race. As you can see, I’ve had a bet on Allegorie De Vassy at 25/1 and a subsequent cover bet on Impervious. However, Allegorie De Vassy is a very short price now and there is no value in a bet on her.
She has an unbelievable amount of natural ability and is a serious animal. However, her jumping has given her backers cause for concern and I’d be worried that under pressure, she could make a bad mistake. Impervious is a very solid mare and has done nothing wrong.
If Allegorie De Vassy makes any mistakes, Impervious should pick up the pieces. However, she is only 2/1, so again, there appears to be little to no value in the price. I’d be surprised if anything else would be good enough to threaten these top two. Jeremy’s Flame maybe but I think she’d want better ground and she doesn’t get that today.
5:30 Cheltenham Tips
2m4½f (2m4f56y) (New) Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-145)
Antepost – Imagine (10/1)
Selection:
Might I – 0.5pt Each Way – 10/1 (Bet365, 5 places)
The Martin Pipe is always a very difficult race to find a winner in as it is always extremely competitive.
I think the market has it right with Cool Survivor, Imagine and Spanish Harlem at the top of the market. My Antepost bet is on Imagine at 10/1. However, the prices have been trimmed right in on them all.
For one with a bit more juice in the price, I think Might I has a very solid chance off a big weight. He had some rock solid form in Graded races including running second to the very talented and sadly late Three Stripe Life. He ran a career best last time out at Cheltenham when keeping on to finish second over a trip a shade short for him. I think this trip could be perfect for him, as could the soft ground and I think he can run a big race here.
