Friday Aintree Betting Tips
5:55 Aintree Tips
The Big Bite – 0.5pts Each Way – 5/1 (bet365)
The Big Bite was rated as high as 150 just over two years ago but his rating has tumbled down since.
There has been a couple of glimpses of promises like his two runs in early 2022 when 2nd and 4th achieving RPRs of 147 and 144.
He failed to back those runs up with the two runs of the 2022/23 season and he saw his mark drop all the way down to 135.
They gave him a 67 break and he returned at Newbury with first time cheekpieces applied and they worked perfectly. He landed the Greatwood Gold Cup (Grade 3/Premier Handicap) and a nice pot too!
He was always doing just enough and I think he won more cosily than the winning margin suggested. He was only given a 4lb rise for that to 139. Given the fact I felt it was quite cosy and that the second, Gemirande has ran a very solid race next time out to frank the form, I think he may well remain on a workable mark and can put in another big performance here.
7:05 Aintree Tips
Impulsive One – 0.5pt Each Way – 6/1 (General, 3 places)
Impulsive One looked a smart prospect when winning the Scottish Triumph Hurdle back in February of last year. However, he underperformed in his following two runs last season.
The horse was put away for the winter and progressed nicely in his three runs in October, November and December last year. They then gave him a 63-day break and he ran a respectable race at Huntingdon, staying on well to suggest he might benefit from a step up in trip.
They took the hint and stepped him up in trip at Wetherby in February and despite doing plenty wrong, he got the job done. The winning margin was only a head but I think he was value for far more. He did not get the nicest of runs as they entered the business end with Milkwood jumping across in front of him. Daryl Jacob subsequently switched him out wide and as he was coming to challenge, he made a total mess of the last. Despite all of that adversity, he made up a lot of ground after the last to win.
The subsequent 4lb raise looked lenient to me and I would forgive him the run at Cheltenham next time out as that was on unsuitably soft ground. The handicapper has dropped him 1lb for that, so he is now only 3l higher than his Wetherby victory. The second at Wetherby, Progressive, won next time out by 5 lengths.
I think 6/1 is a nice price and he is well worth an each way bet here.
7:40 Aintree Tips
Java Point – 0.5pt Each Way – 9/1 (Bet365, Betfred, 4 places)
Last but not least, we have Java Point.
This horse is a loveable type as he is usually very consistent and gives you a good run for your money. Of his last ten races, he has finished in the first three home eight times including three victories.
He started his 2021/22 campaign off a mark of 120. After briefly dropping to 117, he progressed through the season accumulating three wins and rising to a mark off 133, with the latest win coming off 130.
He had five runs this season, in three of those he has run solid races in defeat with two thirds and a second with RPRs of 136 on all three occasions. The other two runs he has disappointed to finish 6th.
He is now back down to a mark of 131, just 1lb above his last winning mark. Whilst he might be vulnerable to one more shrewdly campaigned, he is reliable on the whole and I think he has a very solid chance of running into a place here (first four). At 9/1, I think he is well worth an each way bet and if he gets the rub of the green on the day, he may well come out on top.
Total Outlay – 3 points