Friday Horse Racing Betting Tips
5:20 Goodwood
Alpine Stroll – 0.5pt Each Way – 14/1 (Bet365, 4 places)
My first selection today comes in the 2m handicap at Goodwood and it is Alpine Strollfor Ed De Giles.
Over trips of 1m6f-2m and on Good/Good to Firm surfaces, this horse had a record of 1213 last season, achieving RPRs of 74, 77, 82 and 81 in those races.
His final run of the season was on Soft ground, so that can be forgiven. His poor first run back was on the AW and off the back of a 133 day break, so that can be forgiven. He has then had two runs over 1m3.5f and 1m4.5f on Soft and Good to Soft ground and again, I feel like they can be forgiven.
He now gets 2m and Good ground again. As a result of his last few runs, his mark has dropped from 80 down to 74 and I feel this is very workable for him, given he RPRs he achieved last season over similar conditions and the fact his last winning mark was 73.
I think 14/1 underestimates this horse now that conditions should be in his favour and with four places on offer, he is a great each way bet. Yorksea could be thrown in off 72 and I also wouldn’t rule out Sashenka, given the horses last two Flat turf runs were RPRs of 84 and 89 and that one runs off 82 today.
6:10 Worcester
Ragamuffin – 1pt Win – 14/1 (William Hill)
My next selection comes in the 2m4f Handicap Chase at Worcester and it is Ragamuffin for Neil Mulholland and Sam Twiston-Davies.
Courtland could be very well handicapped if the return to better ground sparks a revival but I’d want to see that before getting involved at 6/4. Balko Saint has questions to answer about his jumping and at 0/7 over fences, 11/4 looks skinny too. Kauto The King and Umndeni are on recover missions. They could both be well handicapped but they aren’t showing many signs of it at present.
That then brings us on to Ragamuffin. This horse had an impressive record of not finishing outside of the first two in his first eight starts over fences but lost that record last time when 7th of 7. The level of and number of opposition certainly helped him achieve that record but he is pretty reliable nevertheless.
His last two wins have come off marks of 112 and 115, achieving RPRs of 118 in the process. Both of those wins came on Good ground and over 2m5f and 2m.
He jumped left at Huntingdon (which is a sharp right-handed track) last time. So he should be nicely suited by racing here. He has ran well here previously with a record of 223 at the track.
Whilst he might be vulnerable to one better handicapped, I think his mark is workable and he is overpriced in here at 14/1. As it is only six runners and two places on offer, I’m playing straight win.
7:10 Worcester
Court Master – 2pt Win – 2/1 (General)
Last but not least, we have Court Master for Neil Mulholland again but with Richie McLernon doing the steering this time.
It was only 18 months ago that this horse was rated 133 over fences. Unfortunately, he has been plagued with breathing issues, hence the multiple wind operations!
He was given a further wind operation in January of this year and was given a tough task in the Bet365 Gold Cup. He had always been just shy of that level and particularly now with his breathing issues. He ran well for a long way but a mixture of class, breathing and stamina let him down at the business end of the race.
Whilst he is coming towards the end of his career, I think we can see him winning a race between now and then. He has switched yards from Michael Scudamore to Neil Mulholland and Neil has opted to send him back into a Novice Hurdle. He looks to have found a very weak race and if Court Master can run his race without his breathing causing any issues, I think he can win this and 2/1 will look very generous after the race.
In terms of the opposition, we have AJP Kingdom for Fergal O’Brien who is 117 rated but giving Court Master 7lb as a result of winning a previous Novice Hurdle. If you took the ratings literally, Court Master only has to run to 110 to be at his level. Outside of the top two, there is a real lack of depth. Barbarian ran to a RPR of 75 last time. Nuova Vita is making his rules debut but it is a very modest 2-11 in points. Finally, we have Simple Words who has done very little so far and certainly doesn’t look to be bred to get this trip.
If Court Master cannot win this race, then I think retirement will be calling his name as he should be winning this and winning it comfortably, even with it being over hurdles.
Total Outlay – 4 points.
