Friday Horse Racing NAP
3:38 Fontwell Tips
Thibault – 2pt Win – 5/2 (Bet365)
My NAP for today comes in the 3:38 Fontwell and it is the Adam West trained Thibault.
After some non-runners, this is now a three-runner race. Having assessed the race, I’m surprised to see Forget The Way as short as 8/15 favourite with Thibault as big as 5/2. I think the bookmakers may have got this one wrong!
Forget The Way has looked average at best in his performances over hurdles to date. He has had 7 attempts over hurdles and he has achieved RPRs of 93, 103, 102, 101, 102, 106 & 108. Arguably his last two runs have been going in the right direction and culminated in his first success, however, he doesn’t scream well in to me off 110.
On the flip side, you could certainly argue that Thibault is well handicapped. He is a five-time hurdle winner, including a victory over course and distance. His wins have come off marks of 107, 109, 116, 118 and 122. With the course and distance victory being the 118. He now runs off 115, so 7lb lower than his last winning mark and also 3lb lower than his course and distance win. It is also worth noting that those two wins were not a few years back, they were only March and May last year. I also find the booking of Jamie Moore an interesting one. He’s rode the horse twice and that has resulted in a win and a second, achieving RPRs of 125 and 124 on those occasions. Looking at the stats, Jamie has only ever ridden for Adam on 11 occasions with 3 wins and 3 places from those rides. That’s a 27% win percentage and 55% in the Top 3. Therefore, the booking suggests they mean business with the horse today.
I might have this wrong and Thibault is regressing and Forget The Way is progressing but off their current marks, I think all of the value is with Thibault today at the current prices.
Total Outlay – 2 points.