Friday Horse Racing NAP
16:55 Haydock Tips
Caldwell – 1pt Each Way – 20/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair, 3 places)
My NAP today is the Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore trained Caldwell in the final race at Haydock.
Long term followers of mine will have fond memories of this horse as he absolutely bolted in for us back in April of last year when upped to 2m at Kempton off a mark of 67! He won so well that they gave him an 8lb rise for it, up to 75. He continued to run well in his next three runs and saw his mark rise from 3lb further to 78. He then disappointed at Ascot and was given a break.
He ran a respectably enough (RPR of 75) on his return at Nottingham in April of this year off a career high mark of 78 and shaped as if he would improve for that run. They have since given him a couple of spins over hurdles where he was pulled up and then beaten 30 lengths. He returned to the Flat with a run at York six weeks ago but was never involved at the back and to my eye, he was not given a hard time of it when the race was out of his reach.
As a result, he now comes here off a mark of 74. Last summer he achieved RPRs of 79, 77, 82 & 84 when running off marks of 67, 75, 75 and 77, so I think this mark is certainly workable for him. Most crucially, this new mark of 74 can see him drop into a 0-75 Class 5. His form in Class 5 races is 312 with the 3rd coming over 1m4f which would have been be plenty short enough for him. I think he is too good for a race of this level.
In terms of the race itself, his best form has come over 1m6f and on Good ground and he gets both of those today, so it looks perfect for him. I also find it interesting that they have put cheekpieces on him and also a first-time tongue tie. That to me suggests they are expecting a big run today. Putting together all of the above pieces, I think he can run a massive race here and that the bookies have it very wrong to have him as a 20/1 shot here. I would be disappointed if he was not finishing in the places today and I would not be surprised at all to see him win this.
Total Outlay – 2 points.