Gavin found yet another winner yesterday making that two consecutive profitable days at Ebor for our racing tipster. Today he returns with yet more tips as we roll onto Day 3 of York Ebor Festival.
Friday York Ebor Tips
Today, Gavin has found 8 points worth of tips including a 4/1 selection in the Nunthorpe Stakes at 15:35. Remember if you fancy any of these selections below that you click on the odds to add them to your Easyodds Bet Slip where you can compare prices and bet across a number of leading bookmakers to ensure you always get best price.
2m½f (2m56y) Weatherbys Hamilton Lonsdale Cup Stakes (Group 2) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (3yo+)
Coltrane – 2pt Win – 7/2 (Bet365 & William Hill)
My first selection of the day is Coltrane in the Lonsdale Cup.
I put him up in the Goodwood Cup and he proved he is top class but just short of the superstars at the moment. He finished 3¼ lengths away from Trueshan in third and only 4¾ away from the winner Kyprios. Coltrane travelled into the race very well and looked a danger to the superstars but he was just outpaced/outclassed inside the final furlong.
However, Kyprios has not come here. Stradivarius is out this morning with a bruised foot and Trueshan connections did not get the rain they were hoping for overnight. With the current going of Good to Good to Firm, I cannot see Trueshan running. I think Coltrane is then the next best in the staying division and will beat the rest of the field. He is currently priced up at 6/5 without the favourite (Trueshan) and I was tempted by that.
However, I think if Trueshan is a non-runner, the Rule 4 reduced price from 7/2 shouldn’t be any worse than 6/5 anyway. If Trueshan does run, I’d be happy to take him on at 7/2 as he won’t be at his best on this ground.
Of the rest of the field Tashkhan would be the main danger on ratings but that one also wanted the rain that has not come, so again I’m happy to take that one on. Mostly Cloudy could be anything after running up a winning sequence but this is a huge step up in class and I’d be surprised if the horse was up to winning this, the connections are probably just after some place prize money.
All in all, I’m happy with our money being on Coltrane whether or not Trueshan turns up. It is a shame that we are not seeing the rematch of Stradivarius and Trueshan but unfortunately that is the way it goes with racing sometimes.
3:00 York Tips
6f Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) (IRE Incentive Race) (Class 1) (2yo)
Chateau – 1pt Each Way – 11/1 (5 places)
My second selection is Chateau in the Gimcrack Stakes.
I backed him in the Richmond Stakes to take on Royal Scotsman and he failed to beat that horse on the day, finishing third beaten 3 lengths. He was pinned in on the rail that day and had to switch to get a run while Royal Scotsman had a dream run through and he was away and gone before Chateau could get going.
I think if Chateau had a clearer run, he would have finished closer that day and he also gets a 3lb pull in the weights here. Providing he gets a clear run; I don’t think he will be far away from Royal Scotsman today who heads the market.
After his win at Newbury, Andrew Balding was interviewed and he stated the Gimcrack (this race) was likely to be Chateau’s main target as he knows the owner wants to win the race. When Buick realised the race was over in the Richmond, he was hands and heels to the line in the final furlong and he was still closing on the front three and took 3rd at the post.
He didn’t throw the kitchen sink at him and that may well have just been his view on the day or perhaps he was thinking they would save him for today instead.
It has turned out to be an incredibly hot Gimcrack with Royal Scotsman, Marshman, Noble Style, Chateau and Clearpoint all showing up here. I’ve talked about Royal Scotsman a lot in a few of these pieces, even one of yesterday’s write ups.
In that form, I have also mentioned that Noble Style beat him on debut. However, that was both horses’ debuts and also over 5f. So, both horses will be different over 6f and Royal Scotsman has clearly come on leaps and bounds since that debut.
The question is how much has Noble Style come on as on raw ability on that debut, he was the better horse but he has to prove that potential is more than just potential. I’d rather one of those two to Marshman as the three at the head of the market, that horse won extremely impressively last time but that was in Class 4 company.
You tend to see horses get a very short price in these big races off the back of that sort of run and more often than not, they get found out in these much tougher races. He may be the next big thing but not for me at 10/3.
The main angle here is the number of places on offer. A couple of markets are offering 3 places and with the calibre of opposition here, Chateau could easily run a fantastic race and still not finish in the first 3. However, a few markets are offering 4 places and others have trumping them all by going for 5 places! 5 places is just massive and I cannot resist an each way play now because of that.
I genuinely do feel Chateau is a special horse and I think if it falls his way and he gets the gaps when he wants them, he could be powering home late to win this. However, some of these horses are so unexposed that it could prove that they are even more special.
All things considered though, I think he should have an outstanding chance of finishing in the first 5 home and at 11/1, I’m happy to back him today. He is without doubt the best value bet in the race for me.
3:35 York Tips
5f Coolmore Wootton Bassett Nunthorpe Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (2yo+)
The Platinum Queen – 2pt Each Way – 4/1 (Bet365, William Hill)
My third selection of the day is the The Platinum Queen.
This horse has Richard Fahey very excited (and me too!), so much so that for the first time he wanted to supplement a two-year-old into this race and has got the owners to do so. They have had to pay £40,000 for the privilege… Considering this horse has won £38,190 so far in her career, that is a massive ask but the winner of this race scoops over £300,000, so they will be thanking Richard Fahey if this comes off!!!
Now, I have no doubt that Royal Acclaim is a special horse. However, I just cannot ignore all of the allowances here with Royal Acclaim having to carry 9st 10lb and The Platinum Queen only having to carry 8st 2lb. That is a HUGE 22lb difference in weights. The same is the case for all of the other runners, who also have to give the 2-year-old between 22lb and 27lb.
The Platinum Queen was extremely impressive last time out at Goodwood. For context, I put up Trillium earlier on in the card in the Group 3 Molecomb Stakes. The horse won readily for us at 9/1, breaking the 2-year-old track record in the process. That performance was very impressive. However, less than 2 hours later The Platinum Queen went and broke the 2-year-old track record again and did so whilst carrying 2lb more as well! That really is special. On Racing Post Ratings assessment, The Platinum Queen ran a 7lb faster time than Trillium.
I was going to play 2pt win here but things can easily go wrong over 5f, so I’ve decided to play 2pts each way with 4 places on offer with a few of the markets. If The Platinum Queen finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th, we will get 3.6pts of our 4pts staked back. So that just seems a no brainer. I would be very surprised if she finished 5th or worse here unless something went drastically wrong.
Total Outlay – 8 points.