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Remind me next time

As we reach the final day of Glorious Goodwood, racing expert Gavin Smith is in profit and is looking to end the festival in the green yet again.

Glorious Goodwood Day 5 Betting Tips

Today Gavin has 4.5 pts worth of tips for the final day at Goodwoood including two big-price tips in the Stewards Sprint Handicap.

Remember that if you fancy any of Gavin's tips, that you can add the selection to your bet slip by clicking on the odds below. Compare your prefered bookmaker price with other bookies to ensure that you always get the best-price on offer.

1:40 Goodwood Tips

6f Coral Stewards' Sprint Handicap (Consolation race for The Stewards' Cup) (Class 2) (3yo+) 

Stone Of Destiny – 0.5pt Win – 16/1 (General)  

Treacherous – 0.5pt Win – 20/1 (General) 

horseRacingOdds

My first selection of the day is a double selection or “dutching” as it is commonly known. So rather than 1pt win or 0.5pt each way on one of these two horses, I’m going to play 0.5pt win on them both.  

The first one is going to be Stone Of Destiny who we backed on Tuesday. Here is the write up I did for the horse that day:

“My last selection of the day, Stone Of Destiny, is a riskier one and hence the 0.5pt win only stake.   

This horse won the Portland handicap readily off a mark of 93 in 2020. However, that was his last win.   

He was beaten just a head in a 5 runner Class 2 Handicap over course and distance in May last year off 99.   

He was 3rd in the 2021 Epsom Dash when not a clear run 2f out and did exceptionally well in the circumstances to be beaten just 1¾ lengths, keeping on very well. That run came off a mark of 102.  

He has tumbled down the weights since. He was only beaten 1¾ lengths on his reappearance over 6f when fading late on off a mark of 95, running to a RPR of 97.   

He ran well again in this year’s Epsom Dash from a long way back to be beaten 4 lengths off a mark of 92.

He has now tumbled all the way down to a mark of 84, Harry Davies claims a further 5lb, so he actually runs off 79 here and he gets first time cheekpieces too. There should be a strong pace on here which should suit him well. With any 5f race, you need luck in running and this horse seems to need more than most but between his falling mark, the first-time headgear and a very useful claimer being booked, he seems to have plenty in his favour here and I’m willing to stake 0.5pt win at 10/1.”   

The cheekpieces are scrapped and the claimer has also gone. However, the point around this horse being extremely well handicapped still stands and I’m hoping Rob Hornby can reawaken this horse.

Interestingly his best RPR was actually achieved over 6f when 4th in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup back in 2018. Likewise, his best RPR this season was actually on his seasonal reappearance which was his only run over 6f. As a result, the return to 6f is intriguing here. As previously, this horse likely wins or flops, so I’m happy with a win only bet here at a juicy price of 16/1.  

My second selection in the race is a horse called Treacherous.  

Treacherous won this race in 2020 off a mark of 83. He did plenty wrong that day and still won well, which rocketed him up to a mark of 91. 

Whilst it does not read well at a glance that he has not won a race since, there is more to the story than that. On at least two occasions, he should have won but bad luck was the difference between winning and losing on the day. In particular, his 2nd at Windsor in August. Everything went wrong and he was still only beaten a short head. That was off a mark of 86 and he runs here today off 79!.

Two runs back off the back of wind surgery he went down by just ¼ length when his strong challenge down the outside just failed. That showed he is well handicapped and ready to win.  

Last time out he was disappointing as he failed to fire. However, once the chance was gone, he was eased off, so he may well have finished closer under a harder ride. Perhaps they had one eye on coming back for this race to see if he can win it again like in 2020. He clearly enjoys it at Goodwood where he is 2/4, compared with Ascot last time where he is 0/3. 

All things considered, I feel he is a big price today at 20/1 and I feel he is well worth a bet at that price. 

So, the play is 0.5pt Win on both Stone Of Destiny and Treacherous in the hope that one of them rediscovers their best form as they are both well handicapped. What a forecast that would be if they both did… I couldn’t resist a quick look as I type this and it pays around 300/1 based on current prices.

3:20 Goodwood Tips

6f Coral Stewards' Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+)

Great Ambassador – 1pt Each Way - 10/1 (Bet365 & Paddy Power - 7 places, 1/5 odds) 

horseRacingOdds

My next selection today is Great Ambassador in the Stewards’ Cup.  

I backed this horse in the Platinum Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) at Royal Ascot and my write up that day was as follows: 

“I strongly fear Home Affairs here and I nearly played a double with him and Hurricane Lane both to win at 4.85/1 or Hurricane Lane to win and Home Affairs to place at 2.1/1 but I was struggling to justify the value in those bets given the calibre of the races. Home Affairs has beaten Nature Strip and according to their trainer, their prep has been identical. Nature Strip was incredibly impressive the King’s Stand Stakes and if running to a similar level, Home Affairs is going to be very hard to beat here as the short price suggests.   

However, at 33/1, I just cannot let Great Ambassador go unbacked, that looks very overpriced to me. Although Ed Walker would have loved to have got a prep run into him, he said he hasn’t taken much getting ready and won’t lack for fitness. He will love the straight six furlongs as he showed in the Ayr Gold Cup.   

Yesterday low draws were the place to be so stall 26 is a worry but that could have changed overnight and we will not know for sure until race begins, so we just have to take a gamble on that and at 33/1, I’m happy to.   

This horse was incredibly progressive last year. He was third in the Stewards Cup at Goodwood but he hung left-handed across the track that day and still finished 1st of 7 in the group that he raced in. If he would have been drawn near side and/or not hung, he certainly would have finished and perhaps even won that day. 

He then got his deserved win at Newmarket next time out on Good to Firm ground like he will encounter today. He was towards the rear but made good headway over 1f out, he went second inside the final furlong and then led inside the final 110yds, running on well. The turn of foot he showed was impressive and it left the impression that he would be on his way to the top sprint handicaps.   

Next time out he went for a Class 1 Listed race at York. He dropped to rear when the groups merged However, as Tom Marquand asked for the effort, he found more and more to win well in the end. He beat Tabdeed that day off level weights who was rated 8lb higher at 109.  

On his last run, he was a fantastic second in the Ayr Gold Cup. Very much like the Stewards Cup at Goodwood, he won the race on his side of the track but Bielsa came up the near side rail to win. It was very taking though that he burst clear from the horses all around him, showing that he very much deserves his place in these races at the top level.   

The trainer feels he has the ability to beat the British horses, he just has to see how he gets on against the foreign raiders and I very much agree. At 33/1 and 6 places being paid, I’m more than happy to be on him to find out! He looks a proper horse.” 

Between the draw and lack of prep run, I’m happy to draw a line through his Royal Ascot run. 

Last time out was far more like the real Great Ambassador when finishing 7th, beaten just 3½ lengths in the Hackwood Stakes (Group 3) at Newbury. He did not get the clearest of runs and Tom Marquand eased off him in the final furlong.  

He was third in this race last year on unsuitable soft ground and I feel that after missing his Royal Ascot target due to a lack of a prep run, they could well have set their sights on this instead. Whilst he is 11lb higher than last year, I think the ground being back in his favour is massive and Saffie does also take 3lb off his back, so he is only 8lb higher.  

Ed Walker was quoted as saying he will step forward again for the Newbury run and that he has absolutely no doubt Great Ambassador can win off 107, so let’s hope his right and that this horse can go two better than last year now that he has his preferred ground and a couple of runs under his belt this year!  

4:30 Goodwood Tips

1m1f (1m1f11y) Federation Of Bloodstock Agents Handicap (Class 3) (3yo+ 0-95) 

Ajero – 0.75pt Each Way – 4/1 (Bet365 & Paddy Power - 5 places, 1/5 odds) 

horseRacingOdds

My final selection of the Glorious Goodwood meeting is Ajero for Kim Bailey. 

This is yet another horse that I backed at Royal Ascot and that I’ll be sticking with today. My write up for him at Royal Ascot read as follows: 

“Being a huge jumps fan, I cannot help sneaking a jumps horse into my Royal Ascot tips… you can let me have one, right? 

Ajero has been a great horse over hurdles for Kim Bailey, a trainer I like to follow, winning 5 of his 10 races over hurdles and reaching a peak rating of 140.  

I was very intrigued when I saw this horse entered up to run at Chepstow on the flat over 1m2f. In all honesty, I was not sure he would have the pace to cope over that distance but he proved me wrong as despite being 

slowly away, he kept on well and went second towards the finish only being beaten ½ length. That run just screamed for a step up in trip.  

However, Kim has preserved at 1m2f with this horse. His second run was very similar to his first in that he was doing all of his best work late on and finished second to a hot 2/9F. 

He was extremely unlucky on his third and final run as he was cruising in behind a wall of horses but had nowhere to go. The eventual winner, Sea The Casper, came down the outside with a clear run and stole a lead of a good 3-4 lengths at least. Ajero then managed to get a gap, showed a nice turn of foot and was closing all the way to the line. He simply ran out of track and was only beaten a length in the end. With a clear run, he 

would have won that race.  

A subsequent opening mark of 89 looks very fair here and means he gets into the race off bottom weight carrying just 8st 10lb. After 3 runs and getting a mark, Kim now steps the horse up to 1m4f which he should relish. 

This suggests this was the plan all along. With his opening mark looking fair and further improvement expected for the step up in trip, I think he has a great chance of running a massive race here. Unfortunately, overnight his price has been hacked down from 25/1 to 10/1 but I’m still happy to play this bet at that price, with six places on offer from Bet365.” 

Ajero ran an absolutely stormer at Ascot beating all bar the very well handicapped Candleford who scooted clear of the field.  

That was a very hot 0-105 Class 2 and Ajero sneaked in off bottom weight. He was headed 1f out and gradually weakened inside the final furlong.  

This race is a drop-in class to a 0-95 Class 3. Between that and the 2lb rise that Ajero received for his run at Royal Ascot, he has gone from being bottom weight to being right towards the top of the weights here. 

He travelled extremely well the last day and went clear 2f out, so this drop back in trip to 1m1f is very interesting.  

The Jim Crowley booking is a big sign of intent from Kim Bailey and I think Ajero has an outstanding chance today. I can see them riding Ajero very aggressively today and seeing who can hack it. He is at one of those controversial prices today, where people get their knickers in a twist if you back each way as he is less than 5/1. However, at 4/1 for 5 places, I’m more than happy to back him each way. I’d be very surprised if he was out of the first five and as long as he hits the places, we will get 80% of our total stake back.  

Total Outlay – 4.5pts