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Remind me next time

Carlisle leads the way on Monday with an NH meeting with a £20,000 graduation chase at 3.00 won last year by Vintage Star and the Sue Smith runner is back to defend his crown again. Southwell also race over the sticks with an all-weather card at Kempton Park. Here are my best bets of the day - PJ

Carlisle Tips –

12.45 – Carlisle – I thought that this was an interesting little race to kick start the day and I am convinced that ROWDY ROCHER will go close if he manages to put in a clear round of jumping, something he didn’t manage to do at Ayr last time out.

The Lucinda Russell trained charge was going well enough until belting the 13th and despite rallying another mistake at the second last put paid to any chance he had and he was allowed to come home in his own time thereafter. 

The selection has race fitness on his side and just gets the nod over Little Glenshee. The last named returns to what I believe is his  best distance and a repeat of his in-running performance at Wetherby last year when he fell three out would put him right in the mix. He in turn is preferred to Bennys Well.

BET NOW – RODY ROCHER

1.50 – Carlisle – Former Irish point to point winner Sir Mangan made a right old Horlicks of a mistake last time out at the third on his chasing debut, but in time I think he will make up into a better chaser than hurdler (rated 125).

However, the combination of returning to deep ground and being fit from the flat leads me in the direction of the Phillip Kirby trained STOPPED OUT.

Third to no less than Whisper at Newbury last season, he has had minor niggles along the way and is still 0-6 over fences, but the best of that form puts him in with a huge chance here if he can replicate his timber topping levels of performance.

Granted his last two runs on the flat haven’t been full of promise, but this switch back to fences could re-ignite the flames and there can be little doubt that he possesses the bare talent to go close here.

He just gets the nod ahead of Ifandbutwhynot trained by the in-form David O’Meara, given some tough assignments by his handler over the past few months including on his last four starts all in graded company. If he is ready to roll on his first chase start he looks sure to run a huge race and is rightly feared.

BET NOW – STOPPED OUT

3.00 – Carlisle – This feature race on the card was won in cracking style by Vintage Star last year, but he never really went on to build on that performance despite running well in the Rehearsal Chase and Peter Marsh at Haydock Park.

He does however have a pretty good record when fresh, won’t mind the conditions and is still fairly lightly raced and I make him the biggest danger to Irish National hero SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR and Alpha Victor.

The former beat Ardkilly Witness here last year and has since gone from strength to strength with arguably his second to Le Bec at Cheltenham just as good as his Fairyhouse success.

Alpha Victor has had several physical and mental issues as a young horse but a fluent Bangor success last season was followed by an even better run in defeat behind Goulanes in the Midlands’ National at Uttoxeter.

With only five runs over the larger obstacles under his belt the nine-year-old remains lightly raced for a horse of his age and has further room to improve although it is worth noting that his record off a long break isn’t exactly eye-catching.

BET NOW – SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR

Kempton Park Tips –

Plenty of races worth a second look on the eight race card at KP, but the most intriguing could be the 2.50. Numerically speaking the three-year-olds are in charge with seven of the 14 intended runners, but it is the five-year-old KUNG HEI FAT CHOY that makes the most appeal.

The James Given runner has been running quite well in similar contests of late at the track, placed behind Compton and then just off the pace behind Stonegate Flyer.

Down to the ceiling mark of this race of 78, he is likely to get the fast pace he needs to make a major stake at the prize money and to my eyes just needs luck in running through the closing stages to play a part in the finish.

I have been over the cliff too many times this season to support the very well handicapped Birdman in the 4.20, but if there was money for the David Simcock charge I wouldn’t be adverse to having a saver on him, but the one I did want to keep onside is the three-year-old FINN CLASS.

He was finding it hard to make his presence felt in some fair turf handicaps towards the backend, but as a consequence has fallen to a nice handicap mark and is one from one here off a 1lb higher rating. 

I think he has major claims here especially as there is plenty of pace in the race for him to run off and gets the vote over fellow course winners Nigel’s Destiny and Barnmore.

BET NOW – KUNG HEI FAT CHOI

BET NOW – FINN CLASS