Saturday Doncaster NAP
2:25 Doncaster Tips
Dakota Gold – 0.5pt Each Way – 25/1 (Bet365 & Paddy Power, 6 places)
I am under no illusions that winning the Portland as a 9-year-old is a big ask but I think he ticks an awful lot of boxes today and I think there is plenty of value in his current price of 25/1 with six places on offer with Bet365 & Paddy Power.
Firstly, his mark. He has won off as high as 111 in the past when winning the Wentworth Stakes (Listed Race) over six furlongs here as a 6-year-old. However, I am fully aware he is not going to be the same horse now. More recently he won off this exact mark of 100, again over 6f here back in October, achieving a RPR of 109 in the process. As a result, you can certainly say this mark is very workable for him.
In terms of the track, he has had 9 runs at Doncaster with that resulting in 2 wins and 2 thirds. It is also worth noting that some of the runs out of the first three were very respectable runs and/or on unsuitably good ground.
Speaking of ground, his record on Soft is 8 wins (53%) and 4 places (80%) from 15 runs, which is simply incredible. If the ground was to dry, he also has 2 wins and 4 places from 12 runs on Good to Soft, so that would not be a huge concern. He has even won 3 times and placed 5 times from 17 runs on Good.
Connor Beasley takes the ride and he knows this horse inside out having ridden him 52 times and being onboard for 14 of his 15 career wins.
Trip wise, this horse has a great record over both 5f and 6f. His win over 6f here on soft ground back in October, shows that he can see out that trip well, so there will be no concerns about his stamina here over 5½. However, he also showed at Pontefract in April that has plenty of speed when only being beaten 1¾ lengths by subsequent Nunthorpe winner – Live In The Dream… and Dakota Gold was giving him 4lb that day!
On paper, there will be a strong gallop today and this lad will be right up there with it. However, when some are starting to throw in the towel, he should keep digging deep to power home and hopefully he will be bang there at the finish. As I said, it is a big ask for a 9-year-old in this race but he ticks a lot of boxes and I think 25/1 underestimates him.
Total Outlay – 1 point.