Saturday Horse Racing Betting Tips
2:05 Newbury Tips
2m4f (2m3f187y) Run For Your Money At BetVictor Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) (5yo+ 0-150)
Riders Onthe Storm – 0.5pt Each Way – 10/1 (Paddy Power & William Hill, 3 places)
My first selection today is Riders Onthe Storm for Richard Hobson.
He is a 10-year-old now but he still retains plenty of ability, as he showed when winning the Old Road chase earlier this season. He ran off a mark of 139 that day and achieved a RPR of 145, with Hitman and Ga Law advertising the form well since.
He then ran a poor race at Aintree which looked too bad to be true, so I’m happy to draw a line through that. Perhaps as it was his second run after a 198 day break, it was the old bounce factor?
He then put in an improved performance over 3 miles last time but he didn’t get home over the longer trip.
He is now returned to 2m4f and his mark is back down to 139, so I think we could see a big performance from him today. He has the first time Visor on to assist him. The ground is also Soft, Heavy in places and seeing some of the racing yesterday, it looked more like the latter to me. This horse has 2 wins and 2 places from 6 runs on Heavy. He also has 2 wins and 3 places from 12 runs on Soft. With his peak RPRs of 167 and 162 on these goings being far clear of his best 148 on Good to Soft.
If you look at the opposition, Espoir Du Guye has had four wind ops now, so I’m not sure I’d want to be trusting that one at 7/2. Also, Heltenham is stepping up in class and has to prove he is good enough at this level.
For those who like stable form, Richard Hobson has had six runners in the last 14 days. The four that have completed (one faller and one pulled up), his form is 1222.
At 10/1, I think Riders Onthe Storm is a great each way bet.
2:33 Bangor-On-Dee Tips
2m1½f (2m1f77y) Stella Artois Handicap Chase (Class 4) (5yo+ 0-110)
Risk D’Argent – 0.5pt Each Way – 11/2 (4 places)
My second selection is Risk D’Argent over at Bangor-On-Dee in the 2:33.
Risk D’Argent beat Anyharminasking (now 135) in a Maiden Hurdle, that horse always sticks in my mind as he is the only horse to beat Constitution Hill, albeit in 4-year-old PTP, so I wouldn’t read too deeply into that.
He subsequently had an opening mark over hurdles of 120. He achieved a RPR of 115 when winning that Maiden Hurdle and has hit 116 on three occasions since when running well but not getting his head in front in handicaps.
Two runs back, they switched him to Chasing and he ran dreadfully, largely due to his poor jumping and in particular, jumping left.
He put in an improved performance last time at Uttoxeter albeit far from perfect, he then stayed on well to finish 4th.
As a result of those two runs, his mark has slipped down from 115 to 109 and I think with his mark coming down and his jumping improving, he is becoming well handicapped over fences. Those two runs were in 0-120 company and he now sneaks into a 0-110 off top weight.
Providing he handles carrying the 12st here, I think he has a great chance and I’m happy to back him at an each way price of 6/1.
2:40 Newbury Tips
2m4½f (2m4f118y) British EBF BetVictor 'National Hunt' Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Limited Handicap Hdl) (Grade 2) (GBB) (Class 1) (4yo+)
I Am Gonna Be – 0.5pt Each Way – 25/1 (6 places)
For my third selection, we go back over to Newbury for the Grade 2 Mares’ Novice’s Hurdle.
There are a few horses that catch my eye in this such as Royale Dance, Moviddy, Ilovethenightlife and Ebonello.
So typically, I’d leave the race alone.
However, one other that catches my eye right at the bottom of the market is I Am Gonna Be and at 25/1, she is too big a price to ignore for me.
She ran a very solid race to finish second at Musselburgh two runs back off a mark of 109. The winner Coral Blue has since gone in again comfortably. The second, Garde De Champs, only went down by ¾ of a length next time out, so the form looks rock solid.
I Am Gonna Be then put in a lesser performance last time out. However, it was reported that she lost her left-fore shoe and also, that was a qualifier for this race. So perhaps the stable were after qualification rather than a win that day.
Interestingly if you look into the pedigree, her sire, Barely A Moment, won on Heavy. Her half brother on her Dam’s side, Blackson Zulu, also won on Heavy. So there is cause for optimism that this Mare encountering Soft/Heavy ground for the first time under Rules could find improvement.
At such a big price, off a mark she has performed well off previously and with potential improvement to come for the softer surface, I have to take a chance on I Am Gonna Be at 25/1.
4:45 Kelso Tips
2m1f (2m1f14y) Lengthen The Odds At BetVictor Handicap Chase (Class 4) (5yo+ 0-120)
Sao – 1pt Win – 7/2 (Bet365 & William Hill)
Last but not least, we have Sao for Rebecca Menzies over at Kelso.
Rebecca has had three winners in the last 14 days including Curley Finger for us at Musselburgh yesterday.
I have been following this horse for a long time and in all honesty, he is becoming a cliff horse for me. However, he is becoming so well handicapped that I just cannot ignore him.
Less than a year ago, this horse was running off 135 in a Class 1 Listed Chase. Today he is running off 122 in a 0-120 Class 4 Handicap.
He is a horse that likes some juice in the ground and it is Good to Soft up at Kelso today. For him, any more rain that wants to come is welcome.
Between the yard form, his reducing mark and the drop in class, I feel it could finally be Sao’s day tomorrow.
He is also typically best seen when in behind a strong pace and both Bollingerandkrug and Sword Of Fate both like to get on with it, so hopefully they continue on with those tactics and we get a genuine gallop here rather than a tactical affair.
I just think this horse will be too classy for this field and can carry 12st 2lb too success at 7/2.
Total Outlay – 4 points.