Saturday Horse Racing Tips
1:50 Lingfield
Gold Medal – 3pt Win – 5/2 (General)
My first selection is my strongest one for the day by some way.
Gold Medal’s running style of coming from the back always means there is a danger that the gaps do not open and he has a hard luck story. However, I quite simply believe that as long as Gold Medal gets the gaps when he wants them, he has the ability to win this race and 5/2 could be made to look like a gift.
When purchased, they thought this horse could be 80-85 rated when upped in trip. They started him off over 6f and a mark of 70 and he won nicely, achieving a RPR of 78. They returned him to the same course and distance a month later and he won again off 74, achieving a RPR of 85! The handicapper has only raised him 3lb for that last win, which looks very lenient to me.
They up him to the 7f trip now and I think that can bring out further improvement from him. Legal Reform should go forward to set a decent gallop from stall two with My Mate Ted and Sharvara both likely to be up with the pace from stalls ten and eleven. Drawn in the middle in stall seven with pace either side of him, Gold Medal should be able to sit off the pace and have Harry Burns guide him through the gaps to victory.
2:40 Ascot
Spycatcher – 0.5pt Each Way – 10/1 (7 places)
For our next selection we head over to Ascot for the Victoria Cup.
The one that stood out for me here was Spycatcher for Karl Burke who gets his ideal (soft) conditions here, whereas that might not suit all of them.
Every season to date, he has improved from his first run to his second run of the season. Despite this, he came out for his first run of the season at Thirsk and won impressively, achieving a RPR of 116 (a career best). The handicapper has kindly left his mark of 106 unaltered and I think that is extremely generous. You could argue a few of them at Thirsk were there to blow the cobwebs away but nevertheless, it was a lovely performance from Spycatcher.
He is only a five-year-old, he was Gelded prior to his run at Thirsk, I think he has plenty more to come and that subsequently he may well defy top weight here. The draw in stall six looks pretty perfect as well, so he should have no excuses today.
It’s a rare appearance in a handicap for this horse and he may well prove to be a class above these. At 10/1, I think he is certainly overpriced and he looks to be a very solid each way bet for us here, with 7 places on offer from SkyBet. For those more ambitious, 12/1 is available elsewhere for 6 places.
3:00 Lingfield
Bright Diamond – 0.5pt Each Way – 6/1 (bet365, Boylesports & Others)
For my final selection, we head back over to Lingfield.
Completely unrelated but I have sided with another Karl Burke horse here. This time we have Bright Diamond.
This horse went into my tracker after her second start as she completely blew the start but stayed on powerfully down the outside to finish third, keeping on, in the Group 3 Prestige Stakes at Goodwood.
They then upped her to a mile for the Group 1 Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket and again she ran well to finish third.
On 2-year-old form, she is the one to beat here and she has shaped as if she will be suited by further than a mile. So upped to 1m4f now and with more time to develop, I think she can improve even further here.
Her entries speak for themselves – Group 3 Musidora Stakes, Group 1 Oaks, Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes and Group 1 Irish Oaks.
I quite simply think from looking at this race that the pricing is purely due to the connections. Be Happy is trained by A P O’Brien, runs in famous colours and has Ryan Moore on her back. Likewise Eternal Hope is trained by Charlie Appleby for Godolphin and has William Buick on her back. Whereas the combination of Karl Burke, Sam James and Sheikh Rashid Dalmook Al Maktoum is not as instantly sexy for the majority of punters. As a result, I think she is being underestimated and overpriced at 6/1 and I’m happy to take on the big guns with her here.
Who doesn’t love an underdog eh… this one may well prove to be a Bright Diamond as her name suggests!
Total Outlay – 5 points.
