Saturday Horse Racing Betting Tips
Mokaatil – 1pt Each Way – 12/1 (Bet365, 5 places)
My first selection today is Mokaatil in the Dash at Epsom.
This horse loves Epsom! He is 3/5 at the track and 2/3 over course and distance. He won over this course and distance back in April last year off a mark of 82 with Harry Davies claiming 7lb (so 75). That was on the Good to Firm ground he encounters today. He then followed that up in this race last year when 4th. However, that run deserves considerable marking up as he had to challenge right over on the far side. That latter run came off 87 with Harry Davies claiming 5lb (so 82).
This is the type of race where horses can come back time and time again to run well and I think Mokaatil will do exactly that. Since that fourth last year, he went on to win at Sandown off a mark of 85 (78 with claim) and he continued to run creditable races in defeat after that.
He can often need his first run back, so I have no issue with his 9th at Newmarket. I’m sure Ian Williams would have firmly had his eyes on this race for Mokaatil. His mark has now dropped back down to 85 and Ian has booked the talented Irish claimer Sean Dylan Bowen who takes 7lb off.
Running off 78 here he must have a huge chance. He is proven at the track, the distance and off this sort of mark previously. As always with 5f races, you need some luck in running but providing he gets it, he should be bang there and I’d be shocked if he isn’t in the first five home.
Silver Sword – 1pt Each Way – 17/2 (5 places)
My next selection is Silver Sword for the up-and-coming Dylan Cunha yard in the Betfred Lester Piggott Handicap.
This horse showed considerably improvement for his first run as a 3-year-old when landing a Maiden at Southwell in very impressive fashion. He ran to a RPR of that day of 85 and has been given an opening mark of 82.
Connections were going to run this horse in the London Gold Cup last month but he was off in the morning the race. They report he has been fine since so they have re-routed him here.
His pedigree screams stamina, so I can only see improvement coming for this step up to 1m2f and this could prove to be ahead of his mark.
It’s a competitive race as you would expect for Derby Day but a winner today would be massive for the Dylan Cunha yard and I think Silver Sword has a massive chance.
Shimmering Sands – 2pt Win – 7/4 (William Hill & Others)
We briefly nip over to Doncaster for my next selection, which is Shimmering Sands in the 1m2f Handicap.
This horse won two races over 1m2f last season off marks of 58 and 67 achieving RPRs of 78 on both occasions.
The latter of the two at Leicester can be marked up significantly as well as he was hampered and denied a clear run but once he saw daylight, he swiftly asserted to win.
He underperformed on his final run of the season but I’m always willing to forgive one poor run.
He reappeared at Pontefract this season over 1m where he ran a cracker to finish 3rd, beaten just 1.5 lengths and achieving a RPR of 77. Considering he was sent off 18/1 and dropped back to 1m, I would assume this was just a prep run and he’ll come on plenty for it. So to run as well as he did was very eye-catching.
He now has that run under his belt, he gets a first time tongue tie and he is stepped back up to 1m2f. I think a mark of 72 could well underestimate this horse and he can add another win to his record here.
Night On Earth – 1pt Each Way – 20/1 (Bet365, Paddy Power, William Hill & Others, 4 places)
My final selection today is back at Epsom and it is Night On Earth in the final race of the day.
This selection is trying to piece together a few signs in the hope of cracking the code.
Firstly, Ian Williams has done very well in this race previously. He is 2/4 in the race with a 1st and 4th, a 3rd and 1st in the three years he has sent a runner here.
This year, he sends Night On Earth for the race who was rated 95 last spring/summer and who has achieved RPRs of 100 on two occasions. This horse has now tumbled down to a mark of 85 and subsequently looks well handicapped.
The horse has also been fitted with a first time visor and finally Oisin Murphy has been booked to ride.
At a glance, you wouldn’t be jumping to back this horse, hence the 20/1 price but when you start piecing the above together, I think he could run a massive race today.
Total Outlay – 8 points.