Saturday Horse Racing NAP
5:05 Chester Tips
Brave Knight – 1pt Win – 4/1 (General)
Today’s NAP is the Sir Mark Prescott Bt trained Brave Knight, who runs in the finale at Chester today.
This horse has been running very solid races this summer with RPRs on or above his mark with each run. The last two in particular have been very strong with RPRs of 85 and 86 off marks of 78 and 80. Both of those runs have come over 1m6f, with one on turf at Sandown and one on the AW at Wolverhampton.
As well as running well, this horse catches my eye for three further reasons.
Firstly, the horse has been stepped up to 2m, which looks well worth a go judged on his recent performances over 1m6f, particularly how well he stayed on at Sandown. That track is known for being a stamina test with a gradual climb from the home turn, especially on soft ground like it was that day.
Secondly, the horse has been given first-time cheekpieces. Sir Mark Prescott Bt is 4/13 with horses in first-time cheekpieces, a strike rate of 31%.
Finally, it is a long old way for Sir Mark Prescott Bt to send a horse as he is based in the South East and Chester is in the North West. Looking at the statistics, he has only sent 5 runners to Chester in the past 5 years with 2/5 (40%) winning and the other three finishing second, third and fourth! So he doesn’t send them up to Chester for a day out.
When you piece together the various points above, I think it all points towards a big run from Brave Knight tonight, especially off this unaltered mark of 80. It is a shame he is not a slightly bigger price (5/1+) and that Land Of Winter did not stay in the race to make it 8 runners as I think he would be a cracking each way bet. However, I’m happy to play him as a win only bet at 4/1.
Total Outlay – 1 point.