Ryan Summerfield returns with tips from Saturday's racing highlights at Kempton and Warwick this week. Don't miss our these selections inlcuding a 7/1 on the 15:00 at Warwick.
14:05 Kempton Betting Tips
Coral Silviniaco Conto Chase (Grade 2)
Eldorado Allen - Win @ 11/4
This is a very very strange race, firstly the pace of the race is unknown, there’s no out and out front runner in the race and this could mean a slowly run race. The second thing is most of the rivals are in terrible form.
We start with Mister Fisher. Since January 1st, Nicky Henderson is 2/29 7%. He averages around 25% for a season so he’s definitely in a bad patch of form at the moment, this is further enhanced when the two winners were Dusart at 2/7 and Constitution Hill at 2/5. If you take them two horses out, he’s had 7 horses run at odds of 3/1 or shorter with none of them winnings. That must be worrying for Nicky Henderson fans and the fact Mister Fisher has failed to finish in four of his last six runs is not great either, I can happily leave him as the short priced favourite given the circumstances.
The second horse I can leave is Rouge Vif, he’s never ran over this trip before and he’s usually quite a keen horse. His first run for Paul Nicholls he was beaten 20 lengths into last place after being way too keen during a 2m chase at Cheltenham. I would be doubtful he’d stay this trip especially given there’s a lack of pace in the race. Defi du Seuil is another badly out of form horse. Since going off odds on for the Champion Chase in 2020, he’s had many issues and as such he’s only ran three times in 2 years. In them races he’s been Pulled Up, beaten 17L and beaten 35L, he is another I could just simply not trust to be back to his best.
The one horse that has no doubts about the trip and no recent bad form is Eldorado Allen. Last season he was campaigned as an Arkle horse which meant unfortunately he bumped into Shiskin, but he was the only one who made up any ground late on and stayed on very well up the hill. This year he’s improved once again, he outstayed Hitman in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter over 2m2f and that suggested to connections they should try him further in trip.
This came in the Grade 2 Peterborough Chase and although he was beaten fair and square over the 2m4f trip, I fully believed he got the trip well and would have gone close but for a bad mistake down the back on the final circuit. Held up, he was making ground when making his mistake and although it definitely lost him ground and momentum, he managed to keep going dispute losing touch with the front few. Once he turned in though he rallied and stayed on well into third place. For me he’s well worth another go at the trip. He’s actually ran well in his last 4/5 runs, which cannot he said for all his rivals who were all beaten 35L, 20L and PU last time out, so I’m more than happy to side with him especially given he’s so unexposed at the trip too.
15:00 Warwick Betting Tips
Agetur UK Ltd Classic Handicap Chase (Grade 3)
Corach Rambler - Win @ 11/2
Lucinda Russell won this race with One For Arthur en-route to Grand National success, and whilst that race may come a season too soon for this 8 year old novice, I definitely think he can follow his stable mate by winning this race. Novices recently have had an incredibly record in these types of races, the last two winners of the Welsh National, Secret Reprieve and Iwilldoit were both novices. Last years Scottish National winner Mighty Thunder was a novice. Even the last two runnings of the Sandown Gold Cup were both novices in Talkischeap and Enrilo(although Enrilo was later reversed due to interference).
I’m not entirely sure on the reasons why, maybe the handicapper has been more lenient with the marks he has given novices or maybe novices theses days are much sounder jumpers and are trained earlier over fences with advances in training. Whatever the reason is, there’s been a definite switch in the last 2-3 seasons with novices in these big field handicap staying chases. Corach Rambler has only had 3 chase starts however he has had 5 point to point runs so he’s pretty experienced and a horse from Lucinda Russell and Peter Scudamore wouldn’t lack in the jumping department.
There should be no doubts about his stamina either, he won his hurdles debut over 3m1f on heavy ground and both his wins this year over 3m2f, he’s got better the further he’s gone. In fact I don’t even believe he was at his best last time at Cheltenham. The course didn’t suit and he didn’t get the best of runs through, however the further the race went on the better the horse got and he actually won with a fair amount in hand, idling when the race was in the bag. I have no doubt he will end up as a National Type horse and he may follow the route that Mighty Thunder took last year in heading to the Scottish National as a novice.
Connections had the option of the Grade 2 Novices Chase on the card this Saturday but it must show confidence they’re willing to pitch him into this much more valuable handicap, he would have been a much shorter price for the Novice Chase.
Padleyourowncanoe - Win @ 7/1
My second selection in the Classic Chase isn’t as confident as Corach Rambler, however I definitely think he’s worth a saver given that Dan Skelton is arguably the best target trainer in the country. After an incredibly eyecatching hurdles return in December, Padleyourowncanoe is now back over fences on a really nice mark.
The horse is an out and out stayer, he was running over marathon trips on the flat and over hurdles he was always a strong finisher over 3m. Over fences his form was in and out with his old stable, Colin Tizzard, not being in the greatest form but there’s a few pieces of form which look good compared to his mark now. At Uttoxeter over 3m2f in the Listed Summer Cup he was staying on late and not beaten far, he repeated this at Warwick again when staying on late over 3m2f. Those were off marks of 140 and 138, now due to his time off the track he’s down to 135.
He’s switched yards to Dan Skelton and apparently this race has been a long term aim since arriving at the yard. Skelton is 22/75 29% at Warwick over the last 5 seasons and it’s very interesting that stable jockey Harry Skelton has decided to come here for this race rather than that £100,000 Lanzarote at Kempton where the yard have Chtibello as a live chance. As previously mentioned, there’s no better target trainer than Dan Skelton and he ran a very nice race at Haydock on his return. He looked threatening turning in and possibly a likely winner, but he was a bit one paced on the run in and from the last hurdle to the line he just tired but it was a perfect prep race for something further down the line.
He’s only had 5 chase runs so he’s not completely exposed over the larger obstacles and I’ve waited a while for him to get a proper marathon trip over obstacles. His best run on the flat was when contesting trips two miles and beyond, and so far his best run over fences was in a competitive handicap at Uttoxeter over 3m2f when a particular strong finisher. Hopefully the 3m5f brings out the best in him and I believe the Skeltons agree and have saved him for this.
15:15 Kempton Betting Tips
Coral Committed To Safer Gambling Handicap Chase (GBB Race)
Kitty’s Light - Win @ 5/1
It’s hard to imagine a horse that finished 2nd in the Grade 2 Charlie Hall would later be running in a handicap off 143 but that’s the position Kitty’s Light finds himself in. Of course he was fortunate to finish 2nd that day, with Shan Blue falling when miles clear, but he still finished ahead of three 150+ horses that day and it was a huge run. He has since had a terrible run in the Ladbrokes Trophy when hampered numerous times and never really getting into the race, and then he had a much nicer time of things at Kempton last time out when given a very patient ride perhaps to build his confidence back.
He was a rapidly progressive horse last season, winning off 135 at Kelso before finishing 2nd in that controversial Sandown Gold Cup off 139. He was probably the best horse in that race but was carried off course by the veering Enrilo, however at least that race proved he was capable of staying 3m5f.
His first run this year he was only just touched off by a neck at Chepstow off 143, when looking as if he needed that run. Then after his superb run in the Charlie Hall, the handicapper was happy to leave him on a mark of 149. After his last two runs, he’s been dropped back down to 143 which I think is fairly generous, especially as his Kempton run last time wasn’t bad at all. After Newbury, I think it was a run they wanted to build his confidence back and give him a nice and happy round of jumping, which was a success. He stayed on late when the race was over and straight after the race, trainer Christian Williams was certain that he’d be back here in January for this race. Regular pilot Jack Tudor is back aboard which is a big positive and I think he’ll be ridden handier now he’s back in form.
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