Sunday Horse Racing Tips
2:25 Ripon Tips
Van Gerwen – 1pt Win – 12/1 (Bet365, 888Sport)
My first selection comes on the Flat over at Ripon and it is Van Gerwen.
This horse has raced twice in Class 6 company at this track and on both times, he has won, with those victories coming off marks of 62 in 2020 and 2021. He also went close when being beaten by a neck in a Class 4 at the track off a mark of 68 (RPR of 74) in 2021. His last two runs at the track were this time last year and he finished 3rd and 4th off marks of 71 and 69, achieving RPRs of 71 and 70.
In four later runs last year he achieved RPRs of 70+, including when winning at Nottingham off a mark of 66, achieving a RPR of 75. His last two runs of the season were very poor but he might have just had enough after a long string of runs. Likewise, his first two runs back this season have been very poor. However, he can take one or two runs to get going at the start of a new campaign. To be fair to him, he travelled very strongly at Wolverhampton and looked a big threat but failed to see out the 6f trip either through a lack of stamina and/or a lack of fitness on his return.
As a result of four poor runs, he has tumbled down the weights to a mark of 57 and actually runs off 50 here with Alex Fielding booked and claiming 7lb. That is 16lb lower than his victory off a mark of 66 less than 12 months ago, where he achieved a RPR of 75. He has had two runs now, so he should have no excuses fitness wise. He is back at a course that he has won at twice and he also gets the plum rail draw.
If there is ever going to be a return to form for this horse, it looks like today could well be the day. If he can break well, secure the rail and press on, I think they may struggle to reel him in off this mark. He is a 10-year-old now though, so he may just be finished and as a result, I’m expecting an all or nothing run from the horse here. I have therefore decided to go straight win here rather than each way.
4:05 Stratford Tips
Shantou Sunset – 1pt Win – 9/2 (Bet365, PaddyPower & Betfair)
My second selection comes over hurdles at Stratford and it is Shantou Sunset for the Tim Vaughan yard.
This horse won well last time to take her course and distance record to 2/2. Those wins have come off marks of 100 and 95 and she is now up to 101 following a 6lb rise. However, she achieved a RPR of 107 for her first win on Good ground and a RPR of 101 for his win the last day on Good to Soft ground. She has also won off marks of 102 and 106 previously, so her rise to 101 today would not concern me.
The win last year came in this race and she also now gets the same Good ground again, which should be perfect for her as that is the surface she achieved her highest RPR on. She gets her ground, she won the race last year, she is 2/2 over the course and distance and she is clearly in good form. So, there is an awful lot to like about this mare’s chances today.
At 9/2, she is a bit too short for an each way bet and therefore, I’m going to play this straight win, which I’m happy to do here. Hopefully she can successful defend her crown in the race.
Total Outlay – 2 points.