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Remind me next time

Sunday Thurles Betting Tips

1:40 Thurles

2m4½f (2m4f78y) Horse & Jockey Hotel Chase (Grade 2) (6yo+) 

Fakir D’oudairies – 1pt Win – 13/8 (Bet365) 

singleSelection

My first selection today is Fakir D’oudairies in the 1:40 Thurles. 

This is a fascinating race that looks to be between the first two in the market if they run to their best. 

On one hand, you have Fakir D’oudairies who is 8 years old, around the peak of his career and who gets his optimum conditions. 

On the other hand, you have Chacun Pour Soi who is 11 year old, past the peak of his career and trying a new trip. 

What makes this interesting is that everybody would agree that at their peak, with optimum conditions, Chacun Pour Soi would be the better horse. However, that is not the question, the question is who wins today’s race with their current level of ability and today’s conditions. 

For me, it is Fakir D’oudairies. If he can run to a mark in the high 160’s now that he has had a run and is race fit, I think that’ll be enough to be beating Chacun Pour Soi today. 

Chacun may well re-spark with the step up, after all, Willie is a master but to me, it seems more out of desperation as he cannot see him to handle it at 2m anymore, with him making jumping errors. 

I’d much rather take 13/8 about a proven horse than 15/8 about a horse with question marks over a new trip, how much ability he retains at 11 etc.  

4:10 Thurles

3m½f (3m149y) Thurles Racecourse Hunters Chase (5yo+) 

Ferns Lock – 1pt Win – 11/10 (William Hill & Bet Victor) 

singleSelection

My second selection of the day is Ferns Lock for David Christie in the Hunters Chase. 

Similar to the first race covered, this also appears to be a two horse race if they both run to their best form. 

On one hand, you have Ferns Lock who is only a six-year-old (so very likely improving), who is race fit with two PTP runs and his debut under rules so far this season and who won nicely last time out. 

On the other hand, you have Billaway who is having his first run of the season, who is an 11-year-old now and who has been beaten on his reappearance each year. 

I do find it interesting that on last year’s reappearance Billaway had no headgear on and then raced in cheekpieces each run after. However, they retain the cheekpieces today on his seasonal reappearance. I half expected them to be left off today with this just being a prep run. It is not enough to convince me though that he is going to be fully wound up and firing today as his target will firmly be the Cheltenham Festival. 

If we look at Billaway’s reappearance in this race last season, he ran to a RPR of 132, finding another David Christie horse – Winged Leader too strong.  

Ferns Lock’s debut under rules saw him run out an easy winner achieving a RPR of 127. 

My gut feeling is that Billaway being an 11-year-old is going to be regressing rather than progressing and he’ll probably run to a similar level at best. However, Ferns Lock is open to plenty of improvement being a very lightly raced 6-year-old and I think he can improve plenty on that 127 achieved on his rules debut and improve beyond Billaway today. I’d rather have my money on the young, improving and fit horse at 11/10 than the older horse making his seasonal reappearance at 6/5.  

A word of caution on Ferns Lock and that is that there will likely be offers along the lines of “Fern Lock to win the 1:40 Thurles and the Cheltenham Festival Hunters Chase”¸ I’d personally steer clear of these. David Christie has both Winged Leader and Vaucelet that could run in the race and therefore he is likely to bring Ferns Lock along slowly and they could well avoid the festival with him this year. It would not surprise me to see him win today but target the 2024 Festival instead, especially as he is only a 6-year-old.  

Total Outlay – 2 points.