Following a profitable Punchestown Festival for us, Gavin Smith returns to tip for Easyodds and has a 14/1 selection from York Dante Festival and a double from the racing at Perth and Fontwell that will whet your appertite.
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Today's Horse Racing Tips
5:20 York Betting Tips
2m½f (2m56y) Fidomoney Handicap (Class 3) (4yo+ 0-90)
Caldwell – 1pt Each Way – 14/1 (Bet365)
Our first selection today is Caldwell in the 5:20 York who is currently priced at 14/1 with Bet365 as I type this.
For those of you who follow me on Twitter, you’ll remember that during Aintree Festival, I tipped this horse up at Kempton at 15/2 and he won very easily. He travelled like the winner the run prior but then got outpaced over an inadequate trip. He stepped up to 2m and could not have won easier that day.
Michael sends him up in class to this Class 3 at York compared with a Class 5 around Kempton last time. However, I feel this horse is more than worth a crack at this race. He has been raised 8lb for his emphatic win but he could be anything at this trip, as he is completely unexposed, having not been remotely tested last time out.
Interesting, Michael sent another horse of his – Sashenka, to this race last year and was narrowly denied by a nose when challenging strongly towards the finish. So, whilst you won’t see a great deal of Class 3 flat horses running for Michael (predominately a jumps trainer), this is no stab in the dark.
One of the key factors why I think Caldwell has a strong chance today is the weight he has to carry. Whilst I fully respect the principals in the market here, the four ahead of him in the market here are giving him 11-13lb and over 2 miles, this could well be the difference.
Horse Racing Double Tip
2:45 Perth Betting Tips
3m (2m7f180y) Dm Hall 125th Anniversary Novices' Chase (GBB Race) (Class 3) (5yo+)
Brave Way to Win (10/11)
The other bet that I’m going to play today is a double.
Firstly, we have Brave Way. She looks the stand out bet in this race and I’m surprised she is not even shorter in the market here. I could see her going off around 4/7 at the off.
I always thought Champagnesuperover was going to be a top-class horse but unfortunately, he has disappointed more times than not. I feel he is a horse that wants proper cut in the ground and I’m just not sure he is going to get that today. The current official going is good to soft, good in places and from what I can see, no rain is forecast until this evening.
Champagne Sparkles has pulled up the last twice, so has plenty to prove, although this step up in trip could spark a revival. Especially being related to Sire Du Berlais (top staying hurdler). I’d rate this one the main danger to our selection.
Our Ted has shown little to date, has plenty to find on ratings and unless the step up in trip and switch to fences provides significant improvement, I think he’ll struggle to get involved.
The other key factor here is also the weights. The selection is rated 126 but receives weight from the whole field despite them being rated 129, 123 and 105. This is because Champagnesuperover is carrying a penalty for winning a chase previously and our selection also gets a 7lb mare’s allowance. So, she is officially 10lb well in against Champagnesuperover and Champagne Stakes and 28lb well in with Our Ted on official ratings!
Given Brave Way has plenty of staying form in her pedigree, I’d expect her to improve on what she has shown us so far as well.
All things considered, I think 10/11 in this race against this opposition, actually looks very good value.
6:20 Fontwell Tips
2m2f (2m1f165y) Free Tips Daily On attheraces.com Handicap Chase (Class 4) (5yo+ 0-110)
Court Royale to place (1/1) – 2pt - 2.81/1
In terms of Court Royale, he has run two very solid races the last twice off marks of 107 and 109. He has been dropped 1lb here down to 108, so I feel he can still be very competitive of this mark.
At Hereford two runs back, he was only headed on the run in and went down by ¾ of a length. At Southwell last time out, he was beaten a distance by Give Me A Moment.
However, that horse has come out and won the next twice as well, so I feel that can be forgiven. There is a chance that he could bump into another one here. He can be competitive off this mark but one or two in here could have a few lb up their sleeve.
As a result, he is does look a little vulnerable from a win perspective and at 4/1, there is no each way value to be had. However, I’m happy to take him at even money to get into the frame here.
Total outlay - 4 points.
Thursday Horse Racing Betting Tips
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