The Shape Of Water
Three Billboards Outside Of Ebbing Missouri
The Awards season reaches its peak when the 90th Academy Awards rolls into town on the 4th March 2018. After last year was marred in controversy thanks to the monumental f*ck up in the Best Picture Category when last year’s panto villain, La La Land, was incorrectly announced as the winner of the prestigious award, the organisers will be hoping for a ceremony that generates less internet memes this year.
With all the nominees announced and the plot narratives already rolling, Easyodds Editor, Jonathon Hague goes through the markets to find the best picks you for.
Lady Bird to win @ 12/1 – BET NOW
In probably the most open category in years, the Best Picture award could go to a number of films. The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and Lady Bird are the front runners with internet favourite, Get Out, and blockbuster epic, Dunkirk not far behind.
As the awards season progresses, Guillermo Del Toro’s monster/human romance The Shape of Water has seen it’s Oscar stock rise rapidly and is now the favourite to claim to award at the best price of 10/11 at Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, Betfred and BetBright.
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri has become the La La Land of 2018, the big bad nasty film that if it won would send the internet into meltdown and is currently second favourite in the markets with a best price of 13/8 at William Hill. The backlash could scupper its chances to win, but the film is an unlikely frontrunner due to it’s pitch black comedy and unlikeable characters. Oscar bait this is not! Audience opinion has been split of this film and I imagine the jury will have the same reaction, despite it's success aty the Golden Globes already.
At the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Awards earlier this year, it was a big winner and eyes will be on the BAFTAs to see if it can give itself the kiss of death by winning the Best Film Award. Historically, the BAFTAs and Oscars never see eye-to-eye.
Lady Bird is the film that could steal the best picture nomination on the night. The coming-of-age drama is at worst 8/1 and at best 12/1 at Betway and could be the middle ground that could pick up enough votes across the board to win the award. Greta Gerwig’s directorial debut broke the record on film site Rotten Tomatoes by being the first 100% reviewed film on the site and the universal appeal could see the film conquer in Tinsletown.
With Lady Bird having universal appeal and the momentum being with The Shape of Water, these will be the best options to pick up the award on the night.
Though, if Leicester can win the Premier League then don’t discount 9th favourite, Phantom Thread at 100/1. You could be the one laughing at the end of the night if you chose to back Paul Thomas Anderson’s latest masterpiece.
Guillermo del Toro to win @ 2/5 – BET NOW
If you want to put your money anywhere, it would be that the Best Director and Best Picture winners will not align. 64 out of 90 times so far have seen the awards split between two different films. So, if Three Billboards or Lady Bird wins Best Picture, Guillermo Del Toro will definitely win the Best Director category.
As the favourite with a best price of 2/5 across numerous bookies, the momentum is on the side of the Mexican in this bout. Closest rival, Christopher Nolan, for this work in blockbuster hit Dunkirk is best price of 4/1 and could be worth a shot as many believe he is long overdue an Oscar but since Martin Scorsese took 40 years to bag a Best Director gong, don’t expect the Academy jury to be so forgiving.
Elsewhere, Greta Gerwig is a strong price at 7/1 and Jordan Peele for Get Out is priced everywhere between 20/1 to 33/1 .
Get Out to win @ 2/1 - BET NOW
With many of the acting markets pretty much settled, I thought I would look through some of the other categories to find a tight market that could really go either way. On my travels, I found the tight Best Original Screenplay market with 3 out of the 5 nominees in the running to pick up the award.
Lady Bird is currently evens across all bookmakers and looks to be the front runner, currently. Further down we have cult horror, Get Out and black comedy Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri priced at 2/1 and 5/2. While Three Billboards might pick up the acting awards for Best Actress and Supporting Actor, I would be surprised if it wins the Screenplay gong even those enjoyed the film found the screenplay to have issues with tone that were inevitably an acquired taste.
Therefore, I wouldn’t be surprised if Get Out wins this category at 2/1 and its best chance to gain recognition on the night as the acting and Best Picture awards appear against the odds. The concept is an imaginative taken on racism in America and chimes with the current political climate in the country which always gives a film brownie points in awards season.
The Square to win @ 15/8 – BET NOW
If you’re like me and you’re a bit of a film buff then Foreign Language category is always the place you look for the gems, but luckily the race looks tight here too.
Chilean film A Fantastic Woman is current favourite at 4/5 and has picked up award season momentum in recent weeks with a number of foreign language film wins and nominations, but The Square by Swedish film maker Ruben Östlund has been a hit on the European film circuit and won the Palme d’Or at Cannes Film Festival last year. With a best price at 15/8, this could be a bargain as the hype for this film could carry the Scandi film to win on the night.
Elsewhere, Hungarian slaughterhouse drama, On Body and Soul is priced at 8/1 across the board, Russian drama Loveless, from acclaimed filmmaker Andrey Zvyagintsev, and Lebanese religious drama, The Insult are priced at 13/1.
If none of these markets take your fancy then don't worry! We have everything from Best Actor to Best Makeup in our Awards betting centre where you can compare odds from a range of leading online bookmakers. Odds fluctuate massively depending on the bookmaker, so in each category you can see a notable difference in price.
Sign up to Easyodds to use our odds comparison service for all your betting choices!
You can grab any new customer offer in our free bets section to place a wager on these markets also. Thanks for reading and good luck betting this week!
Get all the best Awards odds at our extensive Specials betting centre.