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Remind me next time

Rafael Nadal has made light work of the competition at the Australian Open so far and is expected to have another easy ride in round three against Brit Cameron Norrie.

20-time Grand Slam winner Nadal has yet to drop a set as he chases a second career title Down Under and has shown few effects of the stiff back which forced him to miss the ATP Cup in the build-up to the Melbourne Slam.

The Spaniard has recorded two convincing straight-set wins over Laso Djere and Michael Mmoh and is 1/4 to repeat the trick against British number two Norrie, who is appearing in the third round of a Grand Slam for only the second time in his career.

Norrie vs Nadal Betting Odds

This is uncharted territory for British ace Norrie, who has booked his place in round three courtesy of four-set wins against higher-ranked compatriot Dan Evans and latterly Russian qualifier Roman Safiullin.

There is no doubt this is a tough task for Norrie, in the biggest match of his career to date, but the 25-year-old is capable of offering stiffer resistance than Nadal’s two opening victims.

Norrie has improved unquestionably in recent seasons and his victory over Evans, who had claimed his first ATP Tour title by defeating Canada's Felix Auger-Aliassime in the final of the Murray River Open just days before, was further evidence of that.

This is a huge step up in clash though and Norrie is priced accordingly at 25/1, while Nadal is 1/66 for the win.

Norrie vs Nadal H2H

These two left-handers have never done battle before, so it could be a low-key start to proceedings in their first encounter as the pair feel one another out.

With that in mind, backing the opening set to go over 8.5 games at 4/6 could represent value.

All eight sets Norrie has contested at this year’s Australian Open have featured at least nine service games, while three of Nadal’s six have too.

Norrie vs Nadal Prediction 

Nadal to win 3-1 - BET NOW

Nadal is a short price to record a straight-set triumph over Norrie, but the bookmakers may be underestimating the chances of the British hope.

There is the possibility the situation may get to Norrie but the absence of a crowd due to a five-day lockdown in Melbourne should help him settle that little bit better.

Even so, Nadal is not at his formidable best despite what his two previous results say and there could be some value in backing the Brit to get a set on the board.

Norrie’s two opening matches at Melbourne Park have gone to four sets and he has recorded wins over top-ten duo Roberto Bautista Agut and Diego Schwartzman during his career, so is capable of being competitive against the game’s elite.

Over 27.5 games - BET NOW

After the completion of the first two rounds, no seeded player has dropped fewer than Nadal’s 15 games. But the Spaniard is still serving gingerly, with him tweaking his motion to help with the discomfort.

And that should offer hope to Norrie, who can at least push Nadal harder than Djere and Mmoh managed. 

Djere’s first-round clash with Nadal lasted 26 service games and that was with him losing the final set 6-1, so backing this match-up to go over 27.5 games makes plenty of appeal.

Norrie v Nadal Betting Tips

1. Over 27.5 games - BET NOW
2. Over 8.5 games in first set - BET NOW
3. Nadal to win 3-1 - BET NOW

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Cameron Norrie vs Rafael Nadal Betting Tips