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Remind me next time

The 2015 Rugby World Cup kicks off on Friday, September the 18th and we have all the best odds for outrights on the tournament on site now. Angus Watt who writes for the New Gaffer and is a keen rugby enthusiast writes his full Rugby World Cup betting review here…

2015 Rugby World Cup Tips

New Zealand To Win @ 11/8 – BET NOW

Australia To Reach The Semi-Finals @ 11/8 – BET NOW

Julian Savea Top Try Scorer @ 5/1 – BET NOW

I think Australia are the potential surprise package of the World Cup. A lot of pundits are ruling them out with concerns over scrum power. However, dominance at scrum time isn’t everything in rugby and should the likes of Cooper, Folau, and Kuridrani shine, I can see them making it to the semis.

Given the weakness of Group C, it makes sense to back an All Black player to finish as the tournament’s top try scorer. While it’s an obvious choice, it’s obvious for a reason. Julian Savea is a try machine with 30 tries in 33 tests. He should run in a fair few tries in the group stage. There is always a chance that he will get rotated but realistically this will be the case with all the top sides and likely candidates for the top try scorer. Given his extraordinary record, Savea has the left wing position pretty much nailed down and so rotation should be minimal. This gives him a huge advantage in this market. 5/1 is short enough but it is hard to make a case for anyone else without Savea getting injured.

My final bet is in the outright winner market. Running the risk of being accused of being boring and predictable, I simply cannot and will not ignore the price of New Zealand. Four years ago they were around the 8/11 mark and I think that this would be a fair price this time around. While there are a few injury doubts and question marks over certain players, the strength in depth of this side is simply unrivalled. I look through the other contenders for the title and I cannot see a side that is as physical, as quick or as skilful as the All Blacks. Not only are this side the most likely winner of the tournament - but they are also the value pick at 11/8.

To get the latest Rugby World Cup odds visit our dedicated Rugby World Cup betting centre.

Rugby World Cup Group Betting

Group A

England – Australia Straight Forecast @ 21/10 – BET NOW

Dubbed by many as the ‘Group of Death’, pits England (5/4 for the group), Australia (2/1) and Wales (7/2) against each other. The minnows who shouldn’t trouble any of the big guns are Fiji (750/1) and Uruguay (10,000/1). 

I think the value is in opposing Wales. The injury sustained by Jonathan Davies is absolutely key; he’s been the glue of the Welsh midfield for the last couple of years. Their star player, George North, hasn’t played since the Six Nations and will be lacking match sharpness. Wales’ route to the next round will in all likelihood be with victory against Australia. Considering their one from fifteen head to head record against the Australians, they are worth avoiding.

England and Australia should fight out this group. Michael Cheika has really improved the Aussie side. His decision to back Quade Cooper at outside half is bold but I think astute. If you’re trying to win big games, you need to take risks and Cooper is exactly that. They’ve looked strong in The Rugby Championship with victories over South Africa and Argentina and I think they could be the surprise package of the World Cup. Pocock’s fitness is really important and I’m a little concerned about Giteau’s selection but these concerns aside, they stand a really good chance.

However, I still think England should have the edge with home advantage. While Cheika has made improvements to the Aussie scrum, this will be a real area of dominance for England. In what should be a tight game between these two, scrum penalties could be the difference. England have proved to be a really resilient team over the last few years and while they haven’t necessarily won recent 6 Nations, they’ve always close. The team is not too flashy but the pack looks really strong. They’re far too short at 7/2 for the tournament but I like them to win this group.

Of the remainder, Fiji have regressed since the last world cup. Nadolo and Goneva are exciting players but they are a disorganised side that don’t play enough rugby together. Put simplistically, they are offensively strong and defensively weak. Expect some exciting and high scoring games. Uruguay are semi-pros and will struggle. However, I think they could be a little more competitive than some think. With players increasingly playing in competitive leagues, they’ve never been stronger than now.

Group B

Scotland To Qualify @ 10/11 – BET NOW

USA To Finish Bottom @ 6/4 – BET NOW

Looks certain to go to South Africa (1/11). They’ll be mildly tested by both Samoa (14/1) and Scotland (16/1) while Japan (1,000/1) and USA (2,500/1) will make up the numbers.

I’m not convinced with South Africa. Their midfield is youthful and certainly isn’t world class yet. This inexperience really showed against Australia when they threw away a fairly sizable lead. Their last visit to the Northern Hemisphere yielded relatively weak losses to Wales and Ireland (to the latter by 14 points). They’ve always had a good pack but I have to question how much is behind it. They should win the group but I’d be reluctant to back them in the knockouts.

The bet that interests me here is for Scotland to qualify at the expense of Samoa. Samoa do have some star names; the Saints players Karl Fotuali’i and the Pisi brothers make up a dangerous backline. However, the team doesn’t play together nearly as much as Scotland. I’m a huge fan of Scottish coach Vern Cotter. While their improved performance didn’t translate into victories in the most recent 6 Nations, they actually played much better.

This is in part due to most of the team playing together at Glasgow but also because of the emergence of some exciting young players like Finn Russell at 10 and Mark Bennett at 12 who should really shine in this tournament. The match against Samoa will be held in Newcastle so one would expect plenty of Scots to make the short journey over the border to support the team.

While it’s a short price, I’m also keen to oppose the USA. Japan will really benefit from having a domestic league of decent quality and boast a good coach in Eddie Jones. While the USA have premiership stars Manoa and Wyles, they have little quality to back these players up. I expect Japan to win comfortably when these two meet.

Ireland to Win The Group @ 8/13 – BET NOW

Canada To Finish Bottom @ 11/10 – BET NOW

Ireland (8/13) and France (8/5) look set to fight it out for top spot in Group D. The minor honours will be disputed by Italy (50/1), Canada (1,000/1) and Romania (3,000/1).

It’s really hard to argue with the prices the bookmakers have quoted here. It is simply impossible to back France. The cliché is that the French side are unpredictable; sometimes looking like brilliant world beaters and the next week resembling a rabble of school boys. However, I don’t buy this perception. Over the last couple of years, the French have been consistently poor. They’ve failed in recent 6 Nations and I see no reason for their fortunes to change here.

Ireland therefore look a decent bet to win the group at 8/13. With back-to-back 6 Nations wins and a very capable coach in Joe Schmidt, the side look likely underdogs. The fitness of Jonny Sexton is really important and I couldn’t be sure he’ll manage the whole tournament injury free. However, this should not deter one from a wager on them as group winners.

Italy are overly reliant on Sergio Parisee. While he is brilliant, he can’t carry a whole team. Recent losses to Samoa, Fiji and Japan seem ominous and it would not surprise me at all if Italy failed to make 3rd spot. Both Romania and Canada are capable. The former are a good side that seem capable of grinding out wins. They’re not flashy at all but should see off Canada and could potentially upset Italy. Canada’s style contrasts with the forward strength of Romania. They love to throw the ball around (a little too much in my opinion) and will be vulnerable at the set-piece against all of these sides. 

Follow Angus On Twitter - @newgaffer