Jake's ITV Racing Saturday TipsJake Johns - 12:05, 19th May 2017
“It’s the third group one of the flat season at Newbury on Saturday, the Lockinge Stakes. I’ve already had my say on the race but there’s a decent undercard at the track as well as racing from Newmarket”. JJ
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First up at Newbury is the group three Aston Park Stakes run over a mile and a half.
Across The Stars acts as the 5/2 favourite but hasn’t shown enough to warrant that price for me as of yet, although of course Sir Michael Stoute could have easily improved him from three to four.
The value bet for me is definitely HAWKBILL (9/2) who runs for the bang in-form Charlie Appleby yard. The selection holds the single best piece of form in the race with his Eclipse win from last year ahead of Group One winner The Gurkha.
He then went off the boil slightly on faster ground but came back with an excellent effort in France when three lengths behind Cloth Of Stars; he was only fifth of seven that day but even a repeat of that form might see him go quite close. He’s likely to have come on for the run however and the soft ground is massively in his favour.
The other who will appreciate the soft surface is My Dream Boat, who ran like he needed it last time. But whilst he looks like he will stay this trip his breeding suggests otherwise so I’d be wary.
HAWKBILL – BET NOW
The ground is set to be pretty soft tomorrow which will definitely suit Private Matter for Richard Fahey and Ryan Moore. As a two-year-old he beat Precieuse who just recently took the French 1000 Guineas. Now, I don’t think that filly was anywhere the level she is now when she was beaten but its interesting form nonetheless.
However, Private Matter has to give weight away to the field and even more to the filly FLORIDA TIMES (16/1) for the in-form David O’Meara yard.
We all know how well David O’Meara does with new recruits, especially first time out it seems, and this daughter of Elzaam looked pretty decent last time on her final run for Adrian Brendan Joyce.
She was full of running that day and won with absolutely loads in hand despite the length winning margin, running right through the line suggesting further could suit.
Yes it was only a maiden but the third horse, beaten four and a half lengths, was only two lengths behind decent sort Intelligence Cross on his only other start.
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The race that comes immediately before the Lockinge is the London Gold Cup, a handicap run over a mile and a quarter.
Al Hamandy is over priced at 28/1 as he did well to get as close as he did to Derby Favourite Cliffs Of Moher at Chester from a wide draw.
The form of Glorious Forver’s win at Windsor last year is working out well and he was only beaten by a big improver on his first try at this trip.
However, CENTURY DREAM (6/1) is the one for me at a 6/1 best price. He finished last season with a very impressive win at Nottingham on good to soft, a race in which the form has been franked multiple times since (3rd, unbeaten in 2 starts since, 4th won next time).
Also, when taking on this trip on his reappearance he was mightily keen throughout but was travelling like by far the best horse in the race two furlongs out with everything else well and truly off the bridle.
He did manage to claw back a bit of late ground in the final half furlong and whilst he didn’t win it was an extremely pleasing first run of the season. He should come on loads for that, he’ll act on the ground and could be chucked in on a mark of 87.
CENTURY DREAM - BET NOW
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