Jake's Monday Racing TipsJake Johns - 09:07, 17th July 2017
“Caravaggio didn’t get the best start in the July Cup and the gallop didn’t help him, but in the end he just clearly wasn’t quick enough on that faster six furlongs and he’ll need to be either kept to stiff six furlong tracks or stepped up to seven furlongs to show his best in my opinion. Other tip, Nebo ran a cracker before the big race just getting done on the line a 10/1.” JJ
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3.15 Ffos Las
We’ll begin in Wales with this class four handicap sprint run over five furlongs.
Major Valentine has won four of his last six and fared well when fourth at Newbury last time. But his usual rider Ben Robinson is not on board to take off a useful seven pounds, so he may be vulnerable.
If Penny Dreadful can dictate the pace she has to be feared for Scott Dixon, but there are many that like to be on the front end here, which could play into SATCHVILLE FLYER’s (4/1) hooves.
The gelding by Compton Place likes to be held up off the pace and whilst he has been tried at slightly longer trips he has won over this distance as recently as last year, and that win was at this track.
The victory took his tally at the track to a perfect three from three and it came at a mark of 75, two pounds below his current official rating.
However, capable claimer Katherine Glenister takes off a further seven, essentially putting him five pounds below the mark at which he won over course and distance.
SATCHVILLE FLYER – BET NOW
First up for me at Ayr is this class four handicap run over seven furlongs.
Lomu would be the obvious choice being so progressive with three win from four runs in his short career so far. But the form of his recent win isn’t working out fantastically and 6/4 is short enough for now.
I prefer BE KOOL (4/1) for Brian Ellison and Ben Robinson. The gelding took a huge field handicap at York two starts back on his last attempt at this trip, and he won with loads in hand, scooting clear two furlongs out.
He then put in another big display at the track, but this time over a mile when finishing fourth of 14 despite an eight pound hike in the weights.
Interestingly he didn’t run like a step down would suit that day but we already know he handles the distance with his easy previous win and Ben Robinson’s claim takes him down to only three pounds higher.
BE KOOL - BET NOW
The feature in Scotland today is this class two handicap over a mile.
Sophie P and Nicholas T are similar in name as well as ability, running against each other a multitude times at Scottish tracks and taking turns at winning – so I don’t see how one is 6/1 and the other 10/1.
However, I tipped CENTURY DREAM (9/4, DOUBLE STAKES) last time and he absolutely destroyed the decent five runner field at Doncaster. The prediction was that a return to a mile would work wonders and it surely did, taking his record to two from two over the trip.
He travelled into the London Gold Cup at Newbury like the best horse the race the time and only tired inside the final furlong, but he showed bundles of talent up until that point.
He comes to this fascinating contest with a three-year-old allowance and his mark of 93 almost certainly doesn’t do him justice.
CENTURY DREAM – BET NOW
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