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Remind me next time

The women’s Wimbledon Championships are set for the semifinals as No. 3 seed Ons Jabeur plays unseeded Tatjana Maria on Thursday. The women’s tournament was thrown into chaos after top seeded Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff were both eliminated in the third round. Now, Jabeur goes into the final four as the favourite to win the tournament according to leading bookies.

Bookies’ best betting odds on a Jabeur Wimbledon win are at 11/10. Maria, on the other hand, now has the longest odds to win Wimbledon at 22/1. The German has been incredible at Wimbledon knocking off three seeded opponents. She has been on the court far more than Jabeur in London.

Jabeur has played 11 out of 15 sets possible at Wimbledon. Maria has played 14 of 15 possible sets. At this stage of the tournament, those three extra sets and additional minutes on the court could be costly.

Thirty-four-year-old Maria had never reached the semifinal of a Grand Slam until this month’s Wimbledon. She had never progressed past the third round of a Grand Slam previously. Jabeur has also achieved a personal best at a Grand Slam event. She had never progressed to the final four of a major event.

Thursday’s semifinal will be the fourth all-time match between these WTA rivals. Can Jabeur remain the bookies’ favourite or will Maria pull off an epic upset?

Ons Jabeur vs Tatjana Maria Betting Odds

odds

Jabeur is a massive favourite to win against Maria in the semifinals on Thursday. The Tunisian is at the best betting odds of 1/8 to win the match and move onto the final. Maria is the heavy underdog. She is at the best betting odds of 5/1 to pull off the upset of a lifetime to reach the final in London.

Maria has had a strong season posting a record of 36-16. She has one singles title on the WTA Tour this campaign. Maria has won a mere two WTA Tour titles in her career, which has seen her earn over $3.5 million. Maria is ranked No. 103 in the world. She is well down the rankings ladder compared to Jabeur.

The Tunisian started the Wimbledon Championships ranked No. 2 in the world. Jabeur is having an exceptional 2022 season with a 35-9 record. Two tournament titles have been obtained by Jabeur. Her form is so good this season that two of her three career titles have come in 2022.

Just once at Wimbledon has Jabeur played a three-set match. That came in her quarterfinal win against Marie Bouzkova. After dropping the first set 6-3, Jabeur sorted herself out to win the second and third sets 6-1, 6-1 in dominant fashion.

Bookies’ best betting odds on Jabeur to win 2-0 are at 2-5. Four of Maria’s five matches at Wimbledon have gone three sets. Bookies’ best betting odds on a Maria win in three sets are at 9/1. Bookies expect this match to go just two sets, however. The best betting odds for a two-set match are at ¼.

Ons Jabeur vs Tatjana Maria H2H

Ons Jabeur and Tatjana Maria have played three times previously. Jabeur holds a 2-1 edge over Maria in their head-to-head meetings. The issue with Jabeur and Maria’s head-to-head meetings is that none of them came in recent seasons.

The pair first met in 2014 at the US Open in the qualifying rounds. Jabeur posted a 2-1 win on the hardcourts of Queens, New York. Jabeur and Maria met once more in Linz in 2017. The round of 32 match was won by Maria in straight sets 6-1, 6-4. Their most recent fixture was played in 2018 at the Bejing Open. Jabeur won that match in straight sets.

It should be noted that of the three matches played by Jabeur and Maria, only the Linz fixture was “tour level”. It was won by Maria, so in the eyes of many onlookers, the Germany holds the edge over Jabeur. Maria is the fourth lowest ranked player to ever reach a Wimbledon semifinal.

Maria is on the comeback trail following a maturity break. The German has bounced back from the break to reach her first semifinal at a major tournament. Maria’s style of play has proven successful at Wimbledon. She posted wins over three seeded opponents. Maria knocked off No. 5 seed Maria Sakkari, No. 12 seed Jelena Ostapenko, and No. 26 seed Sorana Cirstea.

Jabeur hadn’t faced a real challenge at Wimbledon until the quarterfinals. She went to three sets in the match, but still overcame unseeded Marie Bouzkova.

Ons Jabeur vs Tatjana Maria Betting Tips

Tatjana Maria is a great story. The German is on the comeback following a maturity break and now finds herself in the semifinal of Wimbledon. Maria has the longest odds to win Wimbledon at 22/1. Jabeur is 11/10 to win the tournament, which are the shortest odds currently.

In terms of tour level matches, Maria holds the advantage over Jabeur, yet that match came around five years ago. The Tunisian is in fine form but having played weaker competition, it may give Maria the edge in this match. Maria has already overcome three seeded opponents. Jabeur has played just one seeded opponent at Wimbledon.

Bookies not only expect Jabeur to win, but they believe she will claim the victory in two sets. I’m not as optimistic that Jabeur will win the match 2-0. I like Maria’s chances of taking a set and pushing this to three sets at the best betting odds of 11/4. In the end Jabeur should pick up a hard-fought win 2-1 at the best betting odds of 10/3. Both best are at very good value to punters.

Could Jabeur lose the first set? Facing her toughest opponent in the quarterfinals, Jabeur lost the first set 6-3 before battling back to win. Jabeur is 9/1 to win from behind. Maria is 18/1 to win from behind. My betting tips prediction is for Jabeur to win 2-1 against Maria and continue onto the final.