Each week in the build up to Cheltenham Festival, racing tipster extraordinaire RacingGav will be casting his eye over the key ante post markets in the build up to the 2023 edition of the Festival to find you incredible ante post value.
Every Tuesday, Racing Gav will find betting value for some of the biggest, but also less fancied, races at Cheltenham Festival with just one target in mind - beating the bookies.
Let's get stuck into the first of eight Cheltenham previews with the Supreme Novices' Hurdle.
Supreme Novices' Hurdle Ante Post Tips
My first Ante Post selection is Rare Edition in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. He was available at 25/1 until the last day or so with Bet365 and I was going to say to bite their hand off. He was even 16/1 in the “Without Facile Vega” market which was ridiculous. However, they have trimmed him down now to 12/1 in both markets (somehow the same price!). It’s a shame the previous prices have gone but I’m still happy with the bet at that price in the without Facile Vega market.
Rare Edition is 4/4 under Rules Races, improving with every run and I’m fascinated to see what this horse can do. He won a bumper at Southwell on debut despite looking green. He improved considerably for obstacles to win in a canter on Hurdle debut.
On his third run, he defied a penalty with ease with Brian Hughes not asking any serious questions. All of the above impressed me, however, it was his fourth run under a double penalty where he progressed from a nice horse to a Grade 1 horse in my estimations.
He was up against a horse called Rubaud of Paul Nicholls that impressed me when beating Brentford Hope the run before. Cobden said afterwards that Rubaud would be an even better horse with cut in the ground and I tipped him up the next day when he encountered exactly that.
However, Rare Edition beat him and not only did he beat him, he demolished him. He travelled down to the last on the bridle, demoting Rubaud into second in the process. Sam Twiston-Davies then said go and he found yet another gear and won going away and also hit the line hard.
Longsdon watched the race next to Nicholls, who allegedly turned to him after the race and said “you’ve got a bloody good horse there!”. For his impressive performance, he was given a RPR of 144.
For context, Facile Vega achieved 152 and Marine Nationale achieved 147 when winning their respective Grade 1s. Impaire Et Passe who is currently third favourite at 5/1-8/1 achieved 143 and 146 in his two victories.
Finally, Tahmuras achieved the same 144 when winning the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle. It was a serious performance from a serious animal. In terms of times, the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle was run over the same course and distance on the same day. If you play the two replays side by side, Rare Edition would have split Constitution Hill (173) and Epatante (154) home.
When you look at the Supreme Market, you have Facile Vega, Marine Nationale, Impaire Et Passe, Tahmuras, Champ Kiely, Irish Point, Gaelic Warrior, High Definition, and Jet Powered shorter in the market or at the same price.
We can ignore Facile Vega as we are backing in the without market. Marine Nationale looks the one to beat for us and sets a very decent standard. Impaire Et Passe is very likely to run in the Ballymore as Willie Mullins will likely want to split two of his best (Facile Vega and Impaire Et Passe).
Paul Nicholls has said Tahmuras would likely only run if the ground was very soft and has mentioned a valuable race at Kelso for him instead (albeit the owners seem keen to head to Cheltenham and may overrule him…).
Champ Kiely and Gaelic Warrior look almost certain to run over further. Irish Point also ran over further last time, so could well be in the Ballymore too. High Definition will have to improve his jumping dramatically to handle a Supreme and Jet Powered flopped badly last time.
All things considered, I think Rare Edition has an outstanding chance in the Supreme and I feel he has been grossly underestimated by the bookmakers, albeit they have woken up slightly in the last day or two.
It’s the old cliché but if he was trained by Willie Mullins he would be a fraction of the price that is available, likely low-mid single figures like Impaire Et Passe. Charlie Longsdon has also said that he’ll be even better over further in time. I like horses that can stay further than 2m running in the Supreme as it can be a stamina test despite being 2m due to them going a serious pace the whole way and then having to come up the hill to finish.
Supreme Novices' Hurdle Prediction
At 12/1 without Facile Vega, he is cracking value to me and I’d be amazed if he doesn’t go off much shorter on the day, particularly as he is likely to have one more run (potentially the Grade 2 Rossington Main at Haydock or the Listed Sidney Banks at Huntingdon) between now and the Festival in March. If he continues to improve with every run, he’ll earn himself a single figure price for the Supreme after his next run.
